Can Ukraine Kill Its Way to Victory? |
Get audio access with any FP subscription.
Subscribe Now
ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER? LOGIN
Understanding the conflict three years on.
Ukraine’s newly appointed defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, has a new, grim strategy for winning against Russia’s onslaught: Kill more Russian troops than the Kremlin can send.
It’s a goal that could strain Russia at a moment when it is seeking major gains. It could also give leverage to Ukraine in peace negotiations with Russia, which the United States is currently brokering.
Ukraine’s newly appointed defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, has a new, grim strategy for winning against Russia’s onslaught: Kill more Russian troops than the Kremlin can send.
It’s a goal that could strain Russia at a moment when it is seeking major gains. It could also give leverage to Ukraine in peace negotiations with Russia, which the United States is currently brokering.
However, analysts and European officials cautioned that a plan of attrition comes with major caveats, including that Russia is also becoming more efficient at targeting Ukrainians on the battlefield.
In January, Fedorov said one of his two major strategic objectives was “to kill 50,000 Russians a month.” That figure exceeds the roughly 30,000 to 35,000 new troops that Russia recruits every month, according to Janis Kluge, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Ukraine appears to have already made some progress toward that goal: Russian fatalities per month climbed in 2025, according to a BBC study of obituaries published in Russian newspapers.
The higher death rate may be tied to Russia using fewer armored vehicles, which are valuable but easily detectable by drone, and instead attacking with only infantry, said Kateryna Stepanenko, a fellow at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.
The increase may also be tied to the Kremlin pressuring its........