Why Iran’s Regime Didn’t Collapse |
As protests once again spread across Iranian cities in recent weeks, observers asked a familiar question: Is the Islamic Republic finally nearing collapse? Rising prices, currency freefall, labor strikes, and open defiance of clerical authority have produced a level of unrest that would destabilize most regimes.
Yet, despite repeated cycles of mass protests in Iran, including the most recent spate, they have so far failed to translate into a political rupture. The problem is not a lack of widespread opposition; a violent crackdown this month resulted in the killing of thousands of protesters. To suggest the regime is anything but deeply unpopular is a misreading of how power operates in Tehran. The central issue is not whether Iranians want change but why sustained unrest has not yet fractured the regime—and the answer is that the Islamic Republic was built that way.
As protests once again spread across Iranian cities in recent weeks, observers asked a familiar question: Is the Islamic Republic finally nearing collapse? Rising prices, currency freefall, labor strikes, and open defiance of clerical authority have produced a level of unrest that would destabilize most regimes.
Yet, despite repeated cycles of mass protests in Iran, including the most recent spate, they have so far failed to translate into a political rupture. The problem is not a lack of widespread opposition; a violent crackdown this month resulted in the killing of thousands of protesters. To suggest the regime is anything but deeply unpopular is a misreading of how power operates in Tehran. The central issue is not whether Iranians want change but why sustained unrest has not yet fractured the regime—and the answer is that the Islamic Republic was built that way.
The Islamic Republic today functions as a theocratic security regime organized around Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family. Power is structured in concentric circles, with Khamenei and his immediate family at the center. Authority is highly personalized, and political survival depends less on formal institutions than on proximity to the supreme leader himself and........