The Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Is Still Unstable |
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Calm sets in along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border after months of violence, Bangladesh records 1,300 new cases in a deadly measles outbreak, and India’s satirical Cockroach Janta Party plans to hold its first protest.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Calm sets in along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border after months of violence, Bangladesh records 1,300 new cases in a deadly measles outbreak, and India’s satirical Cockroach Janta Party plans to hold its first protest.
The Calm Before the Storm?
A relative calm has set in along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, following heavy violence in recent months from both sides. The fighting is rooted in Pakistan’s contention that the regime is sheltering Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants who carry out attacks in Pakistan.
The respite in violence may raise hopes that the border conflict is coming to an end. This week, Pakistan’s Express Tribune reported that Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada had issued a warning to the TTP that the Taliban will cut off its support if the group doesn’t halt its attacks in Pakistan.
However, the crisis is far from over—and it could easily boil over again. Akhundzada’s reported warning won’t appease Pakistani officials, who have long argued that the Taliban are unwilling to agree to verification mechanisms that prove the group is in fact curbing the TTP. Islamabad will likely shrug off the remarks as an empty gesture.
Another Taliban move might deepen tensions. Last week, Afghanistan signed a military cooperation agreement with Russia.
Little information was made public about the deal, but according to Russia’s special envoy for Afghanistan, it mainly concerns repairs to Russian-made equipment. Pakistan, though, will worry the Taliban will use the accord with Russia to bolster their capacity to inflict more damage in future conflicts.
More broadly, the Taliban have few incentives to implement Pakistan’s core demand. The group is closely allied with the TTP, and it has a track record of not turning on its friends—including al Qaeda when threatened by U.S. military intervention. The Taliban could........