Pakistan Gambled on Mediation |
Foreign & Public Diplomacy
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Pakistan faces rising risks as U.S.-Iran talks falter, India’s ruling party suffers a rare legislative defeat, and a Nepali cabinet minister grapples with a scandal amid the new government’s anti-corruption crusade.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Pakistan faces rising risks as U.S.-Iran talks falter, India’s ruling party suffers a rare legislative defeat, and a Nepali cabinet minister grapples with a scandal amid the new government’s anti-corruption crusade.
Will Pakistan Lose Its Diplomatic Bet?
When Pakistan agreed to serve as a mediator in the Iran war, it surely knew that brokering peace between two mistrustful rivals wouldn’t be easy.
Recent days have been especially trying. A first round of talks in Islamabad on April 11 and 12 failed to produce a deal. Pakistan was preparing to host a second round of negotiations this week, but worsening U.S.-Iran tensions have kept the two sides from traveling to Islamabad. The peace process is now in doubt.
As long as the mediation efforts drag on with no deal—or even with no understanding between the United States and Iran about the need to end the conflict—Pakistan is incurring significant risks by serving as a mediator.
First, Pakistan’s relations with Iran are friendly but fragile; the trust and support that Islamabad has earned could start to fray. China’s buy-in—crystallized in the five-point peace plan that it released alongside Pakistan last month—was likely necessary to ensure that Tehran accepted Islamabad’s facilitation efforts; after all, Beijing has more leverage over Tehran.
But the longer Pakistan continues to be the chief messenger and interlocutor for the United States in the talks, the more likely it is that Iran grows suspicious. U.S. President Donald Trump’s frequent praise of Pakistan’s leaders—and earlier reporting that Trump has urged the Pakistanis to push the peace process along—doesn’t help Islamabad’s cause with Iran.
Pakistan’s close alliance and mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia, Iran’s bitter rival, hasn’t yet undercut its credibility as a neutral mediator in Tehran’s eyes. This is likely in part because Pakistan has........