The reelection of Donald Trump is an outcome that many Ukraine supporters feared. Given Trump’s statements on the campaign trail, his hostile relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and his friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, concern is amply justified. However, despite his ideological affinity for Putin, Trump has an interest in a genuinely durable settlement that does not simply result in Russian troops overrunning Ukraine. Trump does not want Kyiv to become his Kabul.
While Trump is unlikely to support Ukraine at the same level as his predecessor, President Joe Biden, and unlikely to broker European and Asian assistance for Ukraine as aggressively as Biden did, this does not mean that Ukraine is necessarily lost. Even if Vice President Kamala Harris had won the U.S. election, this would have been an appropriate time to explore the possibility of peace more aggressively. But the details of that peace will matter a great deal. An outcome that leaves Kyiv disarmed, exposed, and without allies is an outcome that almost certainly leads to more war at Russia’s convenience.
The reelection of Donald Trump is an outcome that many Ukraine supporters feared. Given Trump’s statements on the campaign trail, his hostile relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and his friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, concern is amply justified. However, despite his ideological affinity for Putin, Trump has an interest in a genuinely durable settlement that does not simply result in Russian troops overrunning Ukraine. Trump does not want Kyiv to become his Kabul.
While Trump is unlikely to support Ukraine at the same level as his predecessor, President Joe Biden, and unlikely to broker European and Asian assistance for Ukraine as aggressively as Biden did, this does not mean that Ukraine is necessarily lost. Even if Vice President Kamala Harris had won the U.S. election, this would have been an appropriate time to explore the possibility of peace more aggressively. But the details of that peace will matter a great deal. An outcome that leaves Kyiv disarmed, exposed, and without allies is an outcome that almost certainly leads to more war at Russia’s convenience.
Since the launch of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Biden administration has consistently articulated three main policy goals: first, to ensure the survival of........