Why an American Attack on Iran Would Backfire |
Ongoing reports and analysis
The chances of American and perhaps Israeli airstrikes on Iran appear to be rising, ostensibly in support of the protests against the regime. U.S. President Donald Trump has been posting increasingly direct threats on social media, and administration officials are leaking copiously about their preparations. Trump appears to be overly impressed by his supposed success in Venezuela and by U.S. airstrikes last year on Iran and has always been contemptuous of experts warning of risks and consequences. Reports from outside the United States indicate that European officials have been consulted about potential targets, and some personnel have reportedly been advised to leave U.S. bases in the Gulf. None of these indicators suggests an attack is a foregone conclusion—Trump might opt for another round of sanctions and cyberattacks—but the signals are worrying.
Why would the United States bomb Iran now? It’s only partly about the protests. Israel has been agitating for another round of military action against Iran’s nuclear program—Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed the case with Trump during his late December meeting. But the protests, and Iran’s predictably violent repression, offer up an opportunity to act on a long-standing policy demand. Regime change in Iran has been the ultimate goal of American and Israeli hawks for decades. Many people have talked themselves into the idea that the protests have Iran’s regime on the ropes, and that it would take just a little military nudge to push it over the brink.
The chances of American and perhaps Israeli airstrikes on Iran appear to be rising, ostensibly in support of the protests against the regime. U.S. President Donald Trump has been posting increasingly direct threats on social media, and administration officials are