As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, global observers watch with a mix of nervousness and caution. Conversations with Chinese academics, economists, and policy insiders reveal a far more nuanced outlook as Beijing dissects the implications of a second Trump presidency. Trump’s 2016 victory caught Beijing off guard, triggering a scramble to recalibrate. But four years of navigating tariffs, tech restrictions, and trade tensions have given Chinese President Xi Jinping and his advisors a deeper understanding of the U.S. president’s playbook.

For China, Trump’s return might introduce fresh risks and some limited yet meaningful opportunities within an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. Lessons from Trump’s first term offer some insight, but the world has changed significantly: China’s economy has softened, the COVID-19 pandemic has left a lasting mark, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reshaped alliances. Even Trump’s own cost-benefit calculus has evolved, and his policies now reflect the unique dynamics of a second-term presidency. As one advisor put it, quoting an ancient adage Xi himself once cited, “The wise adapt to the times, and the astute respond to circumstance.”

As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, global observers watch with a mix of nervousness and caution. Conversations with Chinese academics, economists, and policy insiders reveal a far more nuanced outlook as Beijing dissects the implications of a second Trump presidency. Trump’s 2016 victory caught Beijing off guard, triggering a scramble to recalibrate. But four years of navigating tariffs, tech restrictions, and trade tensions have given Chinese President Xi Jinping and his advisors a deeper understanding of the U.S. president’s playbook.

For China, Trump’s return might introduce fresh risks and some limited yet meaningful opportunities within an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape. Lessons from Trump’s first term offer some insight, but the world has changed significantly: China’s economy has softened, the COVID-19 pandemic has left a lasting mark, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reshaped alliances. Even Trump’s own cost-benefit calculus has evolved, and his policies now reflect the unique dynamics of a second-term presidency. As one advisor put it, quoting an ancient adage Xi himself once cited, “The wise adapt to the times, and the astute respond to circumstance.”

Beijing’s high-stakes strategy for navigating a second Trump administration involves, in the words of national security heavyweight Donald Rumsfeld, both the known and the unknown in different quantities. Up top is the most familiar—the “known knowns,” and chief among these is tariffs.

Unlike in 2016, Beijing now faces Trump’s return with a sharper sense of what to expect, thanks to his prior policies. Chief among anticipated challenges are Trump’s intensified “reshoring” agenda and potential tariffs—such as 10-20% on all imports and an additional 60-100% on Chinese imports. These would pose direct threats to China’s export-driven economy at a time when the country is still struggling with a slow recovery, real-estate instability, and weakened consumer demand.

Chinese experts foresee a hardline cabinet in a second Trump term, with figures like trade hawk Robert Lighthizer indicating a more protectionist, confrontational approach. Unlike Trump’s first administration, where voices like Steve Mnuchin occasionally tempered his policies, a unified hawkish team would likely leave little room for moderation. Yet Beijing has been preparing—even if not always successfully—its “dual circulation” strategy aims to boost domestic consumption and curb export reliance, but results have stalled: Domestic demand lags, and export levels remain steady. This strategic pivot is evident in a surge of Chinese investment in Southeast Asia, as........

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