Why Thai Conservatives Just Won Big |
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Thailand’s conservatives’ big election win, a new leadership body for Myanmar’s junta, and the question of whether Indonesia’s steady GDP growth masks problems.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Thailand’s conservatives’ big election win, a new leadership body for Myanmar’s junta, and the question of whether Indonesia’s steady GDP growth masks problems.
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Thai Conservatives Triumph at Polls
The results are in, and the conservatives have it. Bhumjaithai Party has emerged as the largest party in Thailand’s parliament by a wide margin, and while it fell short of a majority, it should face few problems forming a coalition.
The result it is epochal—it is the first time since 1996 that a solidly conservative party has triumphed at the polls. The liberal reformist People’s Party and the populist Thaksin dynasty vehicle Pheu Thai both fell back.
However, a referendum on drafting a new constitution to replace the current one—which was authored by a military junta—also passed handily, suggesting popular appetite for reform.
With nearly all votes counted, Bhumjaithai has netted 193 seats. It has a number of options to build a coalition that would put it firmly over the 250-seat threshold needed for a majority. And while the People’s Party has flagged potential irregularities, it has accepted Bhumjaithai’s victory.
So, how did this happen? Machiavellian politics, an adept harnessing of patronage and machine politics, and a war-related surge of patriotism all played roles. Anutin, the leader of Bhumjaithai, seized opportunities to build what in 2023 was only the third-largest party, based on a few local strongholds, into a national force.
First, he helped precipitate the collapse of the Pheu Thai government, abandoning it when it was rocked by a leaked phone call between Pheu Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodian leader Hun Sen in July 2025 amid a brief conflict with Cambodia.
Emerging from rubble as a prime minister of a minority government, he ruthlessly built up his brand, leaning into his patriotic credentials. This, along with promises to block attempts to reform the monarchy’s role in politics, allowed him to consolidate the conservative vote.
He recruited some high-profile technocrats to boost governing credibility. And all the while, he encouraged baan yai—local political dynasties known for transactional patronage politics—to defect from other parties to support him. Come the election, he ruthlessly pursued votes in the country’s northeast—the front lines of the fighting with Cambodia—at the expense of Pheu Thai, which was once hegemonic there.
So, what now for the also-rans? Kla Tham, another conservative party with a strong localist bent, seems to be an obvious junior coalition partner, but since it has........