Will Trump Go to War With Iran? |
Middle East and North Africa
Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep, where your coauthors are fighting off jet lag after finally returning to the United States post-Munich Security Conference (with some stops in other cities along the way). John is also dealing with the shocking revelation that Rishi has never seen The Godfather, among other iconic films, which we hope he addresses by next week’s edition.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: The rising likelihood of U.S. strikes on Iran, the first Board of Peace meeting, and Trump’s mixed signals toward Taiwan.
Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep, where your coauthors are fighting off jet lag after finally returning to the United States post-Munich Security Conference (with some stops in other cities along the way). John is also dealing with the shocking revelation that Rishi has never seen The Godfather, among other iconic films, which we hope he addresses by next week’s edition.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: The rising likelihood of U.S. strikes on Iran, the first Board of Peace meeting, and Trump’s mixed signals toward Taiwan.
Trump’s Opaque Iran Endgame
There’s growing speculation that a new war could be on the horizon in the Middle East as the United States drastically boosts its military presence in the region amid rising tensions with Iran. It’s unclear if U.S. President Donald Trump has decided whether to attack—and his administration is still engaged in diplomatic talks with Iran—but the U.S. military could reportedly be prepared to strike as early as this weekend.
If diplomacy fails, Trump has not been clear on whether he would pursue regime change, as some of his allies in Congress have pushed for, or focus on further crippling Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities.
Trump has been threatening strikes for weeks—initially over Tehran’s deadly crackdown on mass anti-government protests but more recently in relation to his push for a nuclear deal. This makes it difficult to pinpoint what Trump’s endgame would be, particularly after the U.S. attack on key Iranian nuclear facilities last June. Trump claimed that those strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, but the fact that the U.S. is still negotiating with Tehran over the matter is one of many pieces of evidence that that’s not the case.
The rising odds of a U.S. attack. To get a better picture of where this could all go, SitRep spoke with Jonathan Panikoff, who served as deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East at the U.S. National Intelligence Council from 2015 to 2020, including under the first Trump administration.
The development of the force posture in the region and the way it’s “increasing in size and scope, makes it less and less likely that you see the president walk away from strikes,” said Panikoff, who is now the director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
The U.S. has roughly 12 warships deployed in the Middle East and will soon have two carrier strike groups in the region (the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group, which until recently had been deployed in........