FP’s look ahead

Welcome to the final edition of Foreign Policy’s China Brief for 2025.

Compared with what lies further ahead, next year may be relatively quiet for China. The following year, 2027, marks both the end of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s unprecedented third term and a frequently cited benchmark for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s ability to attack Taiwan.

Welcome to the final edition of Foreign Policy’s China Brief for 2025.

Compared with what lies further ahead, next year may be relatively quiet for China. The following year, 2027, marks both the end of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s unprecedented third term and a frequently cited benchmark for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s ability to attack Taiwan.

Though Beijing is keeping a lower profile amid global turbulence, there is plenty of trouble bubbling under the surface. What can we expect from China in the year ahead? Below, we offer our four best bets.

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China is kicking off the new year with a tax on condoms and other contraceptives, one of several measures aimed at boosting the birthrate. Official demographic data for 2025, expected in mid-January, is likely to be bleak. China’s total fertility rate has fallen to around one child per woman, about half the level needed to keep the population stable.

Reversing such trends is notoriously difficult, as much of East Asia has already learned. More supportive policies, such as stronger financial and legal support for parents, would help. But local government budgets are already strained, and Xi is ideologically hostile to welfare measures.

Instead, demographic anxiety is more likely to fuel a reactionary turn on women’s rights. The Chinese government has repeatedly attacked feminism and

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