The upcoming local elections in Turkey on March 31 offer Turkey’s progressives—the social democratic main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy (DEM) Party—the opportunity to challenge the hegemony of the ruling conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP). A win would also bolster the chances of Istanbul’s incumbent CHP mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, to succeed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan when his term expires in 2028, provided that they display a unity of purpose.

The upcoming local elections in Turkey on March 31 offer Turkey’s progressives—the social democratic main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy (DEM) Party—the opportunity to challenge the hegemony of the ruling conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP). A win would also bolster the chances of Istanbul’s incumbent CHP mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, to succeed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan when his term expires in 2028, provided that they display a unity of purpose.

The outcome of the March 31 election in Istanbul, Turkey’s biggest city, will—as has been the case before—be decisive in shaping the course of Turkish politics. Erdogan himself rose to national prominence after serving as mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s.

Imamoglu was prepared to challenge Erdogan in the presidential election last year and enjoyed broad support not only in the CHP but among the opposition in general, but the CHP’s then-leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, imposed his own candidacy. Today, Imamoglu is the only credible opposition candidate. The CHP’s new leader, Ozgur Ozel, who unseated Kilicdaroglu as party leader last November, has said his party will not hesitate to field Imamoglu as its presidential candidate if he is reelected on March 31.

Imamoglu will be a strong contender to succeed Erdogan. He is a centrist social democrat and appeals to both conservatives and progressives. But the polls predict that the race between Imamoglu and his challenger from the AKP, Murat Kurum, is going to be close—and a loss would undermine Imamoglu’s future presidential prospects. Some analysts suggest that the incumbent could be facing defeat, given the loss of support from a key constituency, the Kurds.

Critically, in 2019, Imamoglu enjoyed the endorsement of the Kurdish political movement. The Kurdish voters were the key to his election. Istanbul is home to the largest Kurdish population in Turkey, approximately 2 million or 12 percent of the city’s population. This time, the pro-Kurdish DEM Party has fielded its own, co-mayoral candidates, Meral Danis Bestas and Murat Cepni.

The right-wing nationalist Good Party that supported Imamoglu in 2019 and was allied with the CHP in the presidential and parliamentary elections last year has also broken ranks with the CHP that has made a turn to the left under Ozel and is running an independent campaign. Yet........

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