The Winners and Losers of Trump’s New Foreign Policy |
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When describing U.S. President Donald Trump’s governing style, and particularly his relationships with other countries, two words tend to come up frequently: “mercurial” and “transactional.”
The latter suits several U.S. allies, partners, and even adversaries just fine, while the former has buffeted even some of Washington’s closest and most enduring partnerships over the past year.
When describing U.S. President Donald Trump’s governing style, and particularly his relationships with other countries, two words tend to come up frequently: “mercurial” and “transactional.”
The latter suits several U.S. allies, partners, and even adversaries just fine, while the former has buffeted even some of Washington’s closest and most enduring partnerships over the past year.
In examining which countries have benefited the most and least from the second Trump administration, we intentionally excluded the parties to the two biggest conflicts that it is trying to mediate—one between Israel and Hamas, the other between Russia and Ukraine. Both of those conflicts remain largely unresolved (despite the former pair agreeing to a cease-fire in October), and Trump’s mercuriality has seen his positions on those conflicts fluctuate over the past year.
With that said, here are five countries that have played the Trump game most successfully, as well as five others that have found themselves at a loss.
JUMP TO WINNERS
JUMP TO LOSERS
WINNERS
U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands after their talks in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30.Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
It might seem strange to include the United States’ biggest adversary and peer competitor in the winner column, but it’s hard to argue that China has suffered significantly during Trump’s second administration—particularly in comparison to the bruising trade war and technology curbs of his first one, an approach that was continued and even expanded by the Biden administration.
Some of those technology curbs—including the sale of semiconductor chips to China and a proposed U.S. ban on Chinese-owned tech platform TikTok—now appear to be up for debate, if not outright relaxed.
Trump did dramatically escalate tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States early in his term, but he de-escalated them equally as fast following an October meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea. That meeting yielded a trade truce that was largely seen as slightly more favorable to China, which has used its enormous leverage over critical minerals and rare earths to get Trump to back down.
Trump’s new National Security Strategy did not cede as much ground on Taiwan as China might have hoped and Washington’s China hawks might have feared, but the strategy’s emphasis on “state sovereignty” and recognition of “countries whose governing systems and societies differ from ours” portend a realism that Beijing is likely to welcome.—Rishi Iyengar
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Trump greets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington on Nov. 18.Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
Trump has long made his affinity for Saudi Arabia clear, perhaps most notably by making it the destination of his first overseas presidential trip during both his first and second terms in office.
Washington and Riyadh now appear to be closer than ever. In November, Trump rolled out the red carpet—literally—for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in a fanfare-laden visit that produced a flurry of deals aimed at binding the two countries’ economies together.
The White House has now designated Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally—which boosts defense cooperation, albeit without a security guarantee—and advanced plans to sell F-35 jets to the country. The two nations also plan to join forces in other sectors, with expanded cooperation on artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and critical minerals. “A stronger and more capable alliance will advance the interests of both countries, and it will serve the highest interest of peace,”........