The Quad Is on the Brink of Extinction |
Ongoing reports and analysis
Last year was supposed to have been India’s turn to host a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue summit. But 2025 came and went without such a meeting—and now, New Delhi is trying to pick up the pieces by hosting the Quad’s foreign ministers instead, possibly when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits India in May. Comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, the Quad is a minilateral coordination group of like-minded democratic powers that seek to counter China and collaborate on various other challenges.
During his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump quietly resurrected the grouping, originally created at Japan’s initiative in 2007, after a nearly decade-long hiatus. Yet since his return to the White House in 2025, Trump has refused to participate, leaving the Quad leaderless and degrading its geostrategic value. This spiral is likely to continue unless or until Trump decides to attend the Quad summit that Australia, as the rotating chair for 2026, may host later this year. If Trump declines again, then the Quad will be relegated to geopolitical insignificance, and it may even spell the end of the grouping entirely.
Last year was supposed to have been India’s turn to host a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue summit. But 2025 came and went without such a meeting—and now, New Delhi is trying to pick up the pieces by hosting the Quad’s foreign ministers instead, possibly when U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits India in May. Comprising Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, the Quad is a minilateral coordination group of like-minded democratic powers that seek to counter China and collaborate on various other challenges.
During his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump quietly resurrected the grouping, originally created at Japan’s initiative in 2007, after a nearly decade-long hiatus. Yet since his return to the White House in 2025, Trump has refused to participate, leaving the Quad leaderless and degrading its geostrategic value. This spiral is likely to continue unless or until Trump decides to attend the Quad summit that Australia, as the rotating chair for 2026, may host later this year. If Trump declines again, then the Quad will be relegated to geopolitical insignificance, and it may even spell the end of the grouping entirely.
It wouldn’t be the first time the Quad died. Back in 2008, the grouping collapsed........