No, Turkey Is Not the New Iran |
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The search for a new bogeyman in the Middle East began before the old one had even been fully dealt with. With American and Israeli strikes still raining down on Iran’s battered infrastructure, a chorus has risen in Israeli political circles and Washington think tanks: Watch out for Turkey.
Naftali Bennett, the former Israeli prime minister positioning himself for a comeback, has declared that Ankara is forming an axis “similar to the Iranian one,” and that Israel must act “simultaneously” against threats from both Tehran and Ankara. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, never one to leave a good narrative on the table, announced plans for a new “hexagon” of alliances to counter what he called an “emerging radical Sunni axis.” This alliance conveniently includes Greece and Cyprus, two countries with long-standing grievances against Turkey.
The search for a new bogeyman in the Middle East began before the old one had even been fully dealt with. With American and Israeli strikes still raining down on Iran’s battered infrastructure, a chorus has risen in Israeli political circles and Washington think tanks: Watch out for Turkey.
Naftali Bennett, the former Israeli prime minister positioning himself for a comeback, has declared that Ankara is forming an axis “similar to the Iranian one,” and that Israel must act “simultaneously” against threats from both Tehran and Ankara. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, never one to leave a good narrative on the table, announced plans for a new “hexagon” of alliances to counter what he called an “emerging radical Sunni axis.” This alliance conveniently includes Greece and Cyprus, two countries with long-standing grievances against Turkey.
Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, writing with the measured authority of a soldier-statesman, was more nuanced but still framed Turkey as the power “best positioned” to fill the vacuum Iran leaves behind. “Turkey is no longer a partner on the periphery,” he wrote. “It is positioning itself as a central power.”
He is not wrong about that last part. But being a central power with ambitions is not the same as being an existential threat. Conflating the two is a category error with potentially dangerous consequences.
Let’s start with what Iran actually was, because........