Get audio access with any FP subscription. Subscribe Now ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER? LOGIN

Get audio access with any FP subscription.

ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER? LOGIN

It has long been assumed that a regime change war against Iran would trigger its allied militias in Lebanon and Iraq to unleash chaos across the Middle East, and perhaps even elsewhere in the world, with far-reaching consequences. The proxies themselves have reinforced those assumptions.

Days before the recent Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, Hezbollah said that the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, would be a red line. Hezbollah indeed launched rocket attacks against Israel this past weekend, spurring an Israeli military response in Lebanon. Two Iran-backed groups in Iraq also expressed readiness to defend Iran, and one of them described it as a “holy” undertaking. And two unnamed Houthi leaders told the Associated Press that the group intended to resume missile and drone attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

It has long been assumed that a regime change war against Iran would trigger its allied militias in Lebanon and Iraq to unleash chaos across the Middle East, and perhaps even elsewhere in the world, with far-reaching consequences. The proxies themselves have reinforced those assumptions.

Days before the recent Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran, Hezbollah said that the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, would be a red line. Hezbollah indeed launched rocket attacks against Israel this past weekend, spurring an Israeli military response in Lebanon. Two Iran-backed groups in Iraq also expressed readiness to defend Iran, and one of them described it as a “holy” undertaking. And two unnamed Houthi leaders told the Associated Press that the group intended to resume missile and drone attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

It is still early, but the proxies have been mostly quiet otherwise. That reflects a gap between their rhetoric and current capabilities. The militias are severely constrained by domestic politics and a lack of capabilities compared to the U.S. and Israeli arsenals. It is possible that their response remains mostly rhetorical, paired with a limited........

© Foreign Policy