What the U.S. Election Means for Ukraine and the Middle East

Stay informed with FP’s news and analysis as the United States votes.

Here’s what’s on tap for the day: The world watches anxiously as Americans head to the polls in one of the most consequential presidential elections in memory, Hezbollah has a new boss, and Russia fines Google an astronomical sum over YouTube restrictions.

We’re just five days out from Election Day, and the U.S. presidential race could not be tighter, with polls showing the two candidates, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, neck and neck.

Here’s what’s on tap for the day: The world watches anxiously as Americans head to the polls in one of the most consequential presidential elections in memory, Hezbollah has a new boss, and Russia fines Google an astronomical sum over YouTube restrictions.

We’re just five days out from Election Day, and the U.S. presidential race could not be tighter, with polls showing the two candidates, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, neck and neck.

The election comes as the world finds itself at one of the most critical junctures of the post-Cold War era. With stark differences between how the two candidates are likely to conduct their foreign policy, who wins the White House next week has profound consequences for the major crises roiling the globe today. Most immediately, here’s what the election could mean for the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Ukraine and Europe. The result is likely to have a significant impact on the course of the war in Ukraine, where Russia is chipping away at Ukrainian territory in the Donbas. The United States is the largest provider of military aid to Ukraine, and that aid has played a decisive role in limiting Russia’s advance during the course of the war.

Harris, who has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky several times, is widely expected to continue the Biden administration’s approach to the war. In her words, that translates to “supporting Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia’s unprovoked aggression.” She told Zelensky in September that she “will work to ensure Ukraine prevails in this war,” but in a 60 Minutes interview this month, she declined to say whether she would support Ukraine’s request to join NATO. The Biden administration opposes Ukraine joining the alliance until the war with Russia has ended.

Trump, on the other hand, has put nerves on edge in Ukraine and Europe, promising to end the conflict in one day.

U.S. assistance is likely to be “cut off” if the former president is reelected, said Jim Townsend, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO during the Obama administration. “Unless he’s going to use that as leverage over Zelensky,” Townsend said.

Indeed, Trump has........

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