What Next After Iran’s Massacre?

In the last week, the Islamic Republic perpetrated the greatest massacre in modern Iranian history. In response to massive popular protests against its rule, the regime has killed thousands of unarmed protesters. Just how many remains unclear, but plausible estimates put it in the range of 12,000 to 20,000 dead. Many others were also caught in the crossfire.

Some analysts and commentators claim the latest series of events to be the end of the Islamic Republic. But while the regime has been greatly weakened by dissent, war, and sanctions, it has nevertheless proved resilient and ruthless. The Iranian opposition is divided, and foreign intervention is not a panacea.

However, the regime can still be overthrown if cracks within the ruling elite widen dramatically and if security forces start to defect in great numbers. The United States can also play an important role in disrupting the regime’s ability to shut off the internet and conduct crimes against humanity in the cover of darkness.

The current uprising against the regime began with protests in Tehran’s bazaar, triggered by a major currency crisis. Soon, students, laborers, and many Iranians fed up with the grinding misery of everyday life joined the bazaar strikes. The protests spread to smaller western and southwestern towns that, like the capital, have been hit hard by mismanagement of water by the regime. These included Lordegan, Malekshahi, and Abdanan, where a majority of the town’s residents were reported to have come out in protest.

The regime let the protests play out for a few days before it responded with force, initially using regular

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