Is the Iran War Pushing Southeast Asia into China’s Arms? |
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When Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency in late March, he exposed a problem Washington prefers not to see: The U.S. security umbrella does not automatically protect Southeast Asia from the economic fallout of conflict escalation in the Persian Gulf. A country thousands of miles from the Strait of Hormuz was suddenly scrambling to secure fuel, calm domestic pressures, and protect its economy from a conflict it did not start and could not influence. Philippine officials said at the time that the country had about 45 days of fuel reserves and was seeking an additional 1 million barrels to build buffer stock. That is now the condition of much of Southeast Asia.
The Iran war is often described as an energy shock, and of course it is. But the real question is, which states still retain enough agency under exposure to absorb the shock, rebalance their dependencies, and avoid being pushed deeper into one great-power orbit or the other? The disruption extends beyond crude. Naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas, and refined products moving through Hormuz feed directly into Southeast Asia’s petrochemical and agricultural supply chains, narrowing the policy tools available to governments trying to adjust to the new reality. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that Asia is more vulnerable than other regions to a prolonged war-induced energy shock because of its heavy dependence on Middle Eastern fuel. Exposure is widespread. Agency is not.
When Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency in late March, he exposed a problem Washington prefers not to see: The U.S. security umbrella does not automatically protect Southeast Asia from the economic fallout of conflict escalation in the Persian Gulf. A country thousands of miles from the Strait of Hormuz was suddenly scrambling to secure fuel, calm domestic pressures, and protect its economy from a conflict it did not start and could not influence. Philippine officials said at the time that the country had about 45 days of fuel reserves and was seeking an additional 1 million barrels to build buffer stock. That is now the condition of much of Southeast Asia.
The Iran war is often described as an energy shock, and of course it is. But the real question is, which states still retain enough agency under exposure to absorb the........