Trump’s New Cyber Strategy Is Catnip for Beijing |
Science and Technology
In 2023, unidentified hackers conducted a sophisticated cyber espionage campaign known as “Operation Triangulation,” infiltrating iPhones used by high-value targets within the Russian government. Apple patched the underlying vulnerabilities, and the case appeared to be closed—but in late February, a former employee at a U.S. defense contractor was sentenced to 87 months in prison for supplying a Russian broker with malware linked to the Triangulation campaign. The same hacked infrastructure was being used for multiple criminal campaigns.
The episode illustrates the reality of cyber conflict: Even best-in-class cyber capabilities rarely stay contained, and once exposed, they move rapidly through contractors, brokers, and criminal networks. Past leaks of cyber tools suspected to be developed by the United States—by the Shadow Brokers group and others—have shown how quickly sophisticated capabilities circulate among rival intelligence services and criminal networks.
In 2023, unidentified hackers conducted a sophisticated cyber espionage campaign known as “Operation Triangulation,” infiltrating iPhones used by high-value targets within the Russian government. Apple patched the underlying vulnerabilities, and the case appeared to be closed—but in late February, a former employee at a U.S. defense contractor was sentenced to 87 months in prison for supplying a Russian broker with malware linked to the Triangulation campaign. The same hacked infrastructure was being used for multiple criminal campaigns.
The episode illustrates the reality of cyber conflict: Even best-in-class cyber capabilities rarely stay contained, and once exposed, they move rapidly through contractors, brokers, and criminal networks. Past leaks of cyber tools suspected to be developed by the United States—by the Shadow Brokers group and others—have shown how quickly sophisticated capabilities circulate among rival intelligence services and criminal networks.
Yet U.S. President Donald Trump’s new six-pillar national cyber strategy, released on March 6, doubles down on this risk, elevating offensive cyber operations as Washington’s primary instrument of deterrence. It’s a dangerous gamble—one that Beijing, which has emerged as the prime cyber adversary to the United States, will see not just as an escalation but also as a legitimization of its own destabilizing posture.
Ultimately, the strategy risks the proliferation of dangerous capabilities to more countries and nonstate actors; increases the chances of miscalculations and retaliation based on misunderstanding; and makes the global cyberspace more aggressive, crowded, and unstable.
China has been flexing its willingness to take risks through cyber operations—and its ability to withstand ensuing retaliation—for more than a decade. In recent years, however, Chinese cyber operations have assumed an increasingly strategic nature, shifting beyond........