Why Trump Might Come to Regret the Iran War |
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The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is now entering its third month. The average length of an interstate conflict in the past 200 years is three to four months, though many wars last far longer. This one shows little sign of abating.
But the war may be entering a new phase where prospects for a transformational change on the battlefield or at the negotiating table are receding. We need to adjust our frame of reference accordingly. Instead of looking for a determinative ending, a final resolution, or a negotiated agreement, this war may end up as just another round in an ongoing, half-century confrontation between the United States and Iran. Five politically inconvenient realities now define where we are.
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is now entering its third month. The average length of an interstate conflict in the past 200 years is three to four months, though many wars last far longer. This one shows little sign of abating.
But the war may be entering a new phase where prospects for a transformational change on the battlefield or at the negotiating table are receding. We need to adjust our frame of reference accordingly. Instead of looking for a determinative ending, a final resolution, or a negotiated agreement, this war may end up as just another round in an ongoing, half-century confrontation between the United States and Iran. Five politically inconvenient realities now define where we are.
Though the United States still hopes to strike a deal with Iran, the impasse that now characterizes the situation in the region could well be the new normal. Iran is inflicting pain on the United States and its allies with its closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. blockade is taking a toll on Iran. Yet neither economic warfare nor military escalation has yielded success on the battlefield or in negotiations. The Trump administration appears to have rejected Iran’s proposal to open the strait in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade, with negotiations on broader issues to follow. But it hasn’t decided on an alternative approach.
For anyone paying close attention to the trajectory of U.S.-Iranian relations over the past........