For some time, the United States has worked to consolidate Saudi Arabia’s position in the American geopolitical orbit; even the war in the Gaza Strip, which has divided officials in Riyadh and Washington on the question of Palestinian governance, has not dimmed the Biden administration’s desire for a security treaty and nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia. In fact, Washington has continued to pursue those deals with Riyadh, which would also include Saudi recognition of Israel, as a potential lever to move Israel toward a political solution to the Palestinian issue. A U.S.-Saudi defense treaty and agreement on civil nuclear cooperation appears to be in the final stages. As the White House has pushed for a cozier relationship with Riyadh, it has become clear what the Biden administration is seeking to gain from the expanded U.S. commitment to Saudi Arabia: not just movement toward a more stable Middle East but also the foreclosure of any possibility that China might lure the Saudis into its sphere of influence.
At a time when many countries are hedging their bets amid the emerging great-power competition among China, Russia, and the United States, why would the Saudis double down on their historic reliance on Washington? In short, they want what neither China nor Russia can provide: security. The Saudis have grave doubts about the U.S. commitment to their country and their region, and they want to nail that down as best they can through a treaty that would not change from administration to administration. The problem for Riyadh is that when the United States makes a security commitment to a country, most Americans expect that country to back Washington on the whole range of international issues—economic and political, as well as military. That is where the Saudis might disappoint. They do not want to hedge on security. They want to be part of the American team. But they also want to maintain some flexibility on the economic and political fronts given the crucial importance of China as an energy customer and Russia as an energy producer.
Both a potential Harris and a potential Trump administration will need to reckon with Riyadh’s independent ties to Beijing and Moscow should a U.S.-Saudi agreement move forward. It may prove to be a harder pill for a Democratic administration to swallow, given Trump’s embrace of autocrats the world over. But regardless, Washington should go into the final stages of negotiations with Riyadh with a full understanding of Saudi Arabia’s intentions—or it will set the relationship up for unnecessary strife.
Saudi leaders, along with their counterparts in other Persian Gulf monarchies, have worried about Washington’s commitment to their security for the past three U.S. administrations. The American public’s evident weariness and frustration with the lengthy wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were manifested in a succession of presidents—Barack Obama, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden—who vowed to reduce the U.S. presence in the Middle East and pivot attention to East Asia in response to the rise of China. The fact that all three found themselves unable to ignore Middle Eastern upheavals—such as the fight against the Islamic State (or ISIS) in the 2010s and, more recently, the war in Gaza and Israel’s conflicts with Hezbollah and Iran—hardly quieted the Saudis’ fears.
In the eyes of the Saudis, each president made a singular decision—or nondecision—that........