In 2005, U.S. President George W. Bush stood at a lectern in Bethesda, Maryland, to make an important announcement. He was joined by five members of his cabinet, two senators, three congressmen, and multiple international guests. It was an unusual show of force for a press conference, and with two unpopular wars underway and the response to Hurricane Katrina still floundering, there was plenty else to attend to.
“Leaders at every level of government have a responsibility to confront dangers before they appear and engage the American people on the best course of action,” he declared. A failure to do so, he said, could cost millions of lives and trillions of dollars. Bush then announced a sweeping new program meant to tackle those dangers head-on.
But it wasn’t a military conflict that commanded presidential attention. It wasn’t another hurricane or a terrorist attack. It was influenza.
“Pandemic flu,” Bush explained, “occurs when a new strain of influenza emerges that can be transmitted easily from person to person—and for which there is little or no natural immunity.” No such strain existed then, but Bush was worried that one soon might. To that end, he was announcing the creation of the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza, a comprehensive government plan for handling pandemic flu outbreaks. “By preparing now, we can give our citizens some peace of mind,” he said.
His warning proved prescient. Four years later, in 2009, two children in southern California with no connection to each other developed fevers and coughs. Laboratory tests soon revealed that they were both infected with a new subtype of influenza. Within two weeks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention activated its Emergency Operations Center and began work to develop a vaccine. The Strategic National Stockpile sent antivirals and personal protective equipment to states. The World Health Organization declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” and raised the influenza pandemic alert to the highest level. The H1N1 pandemic had begun.
Now, 14 years after H1N1, and with COVID-19 still roiling the world, the United States is again facing the prospect of an influenza pandemic. Avian influenza, or H5N1, has been tearing through animals for over a year, spreading more widely than it ever has before. In the United States, H5N1 has been detected in more than 6,300 wild birds and in every state. Outbreaks in commercial flocks have been registered in 47 states, leading farmers to cull over 58 million birds. It has been found in American mammals, such as raccoons and harbor seals. And the number of affected birds and mammal species continues to grow.
Yet this time, there is little evidence of the tenacity that propelled action in 2005 and 2009. Instead, the world has largely chosen to wait and see what happens next. It is a dangerous........