On August 6, 2024, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise cross-border offensive into Russia’s Kursk region—the biggest foreign incursion into Russian territory since World War II. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response was telling. Days after Ukraine’s offensive, Putin railed against the United States and Europe. “The West is fighting us with the hands of the Ukrainians,” he said, reiterating his view that Russia’s war in Ukraine is in fact a proxy battle with the West. But he initiated no immediate military counterattack. Putin was unwilling to divert substantial numbers of troops away from their operations in eastern Ukraine even to recover territory back home. Three months later, with Ukrainian forces still in Kursk, Moscow instead brought in North Korean troops to help push them out—the first time in more than a century that Russia has invited foreign troops onto its soil.
Moscow’s actions underscore how, after almost three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor, Putin is now more committed than ever to the war with Ukraine and his broader confrontation with the West. Although the conflict is first and foremost an imperial pursuit to end Ukraine’s independence, Putin’s ultimate objectives are to relitigate the post–Cold War order in Europe, weaken the United States, and usher in a new international system that affords Russia the status and influence Putin believes it deserves.
These goals are not new. But the war has hardened Putin’s resolve and narrowed his options. There is no turning back: Putin has already transformed Russia’s society, economy, and foreign policy to better position the Kremlin to take on the West. Having accepted the mantle of a rogue regime, Russia is now even less likely to see a need for constraint.
The stage is set for the confrontation with Russia to intensify, despite the incoming Trump administration’s apparent interest in normalizing relations with Moscow. The war is not going well for Ukraine, in part because the limited assistance the West has sent to Kyiv does not match the deep stake it claims to have in the conflict. As a result, Russia is likely to walk away from the war emboldened and, once it has reconstituted its military capacity, spoiling for another fight to revise the security order in Europe. What’s more, the Kremlin will look to pocket any concessions from the Trump administration for ending the current war, such as sanctions relief, to strengthen its hand for the next one. Russia is already preparing the ground through the sabotage and other special operations it has unleashed across Europe and through its alignment with other rogue actors, including Iran and North Korea. European countries are only slightly more prepared to handle the Russian challenge on their own than they did three years ago. And depending on how the war in Ukraine ends, the possibility of another war with Russia looms.
The question is not whether Russia will pose a threat to the United States and its allies but how to assess the magnitude of the danger and the effort required to contain it. China will remain the United States’ primary competitor. But even with much of its attention called to Asia, Washington cannot ignore a recalcitrant and revanchist adversary in Europe, especially not one that will pose a direct military threat to NATO members.
The Russian problem is also a global one. Putin’s willingness to invade a neighbor, assault democratic societies, and generally violate accepted norms—and his seeming ability to get away with it—paves the way for others to do the same.The Kremlin’s provision of military equipment and know-how to current and aspiring U.S. adversaries will amplify these threats, multiplying the challenges that Washington will face from China, Iran, North Korea, and any other country that Russia backs.
The United States and Europe, therefore, must invest in resisting Russia now or pay a far greater cost later. The incoming Trump administration, in particular, does not have the luxury of shoving Russia down its list of policy priorities. If Putin sees Washington doing so, he will grow only more brazen and ambitious in his efforts to weaken the United States and its allies, both directly and through the axis of upheaval that Russia supports. To prevent that outcome, Washington and its allies must help Ukraine strengthen its position ahead of negotiations to end the current war. The United States is right to prioritize China, but in order to effectively compete with Beijing, it first needs to set European security on the right path. Washington must remain the primary enabler of that security for now, while making sure that Europe ramps up the investments required to better handle its own defense in the years ahead. By taking the steps necessary to counter Russia today, the United States and Europe can ensure that the threat they face tomorrow will be a manageable one.
Putin has changed Russia in ways that will ensure it remains a challenge to the West as long as he is in power and likely well beyond. Confrontation is now the hallmark of Russia’s foreign policy, with Putin citing his country’s “existential struggle” with the West to justify his regime and its actions. This idea of a Russian civilization in constant conflict with its Western foes strengthens the ideological foundation of his rule—a source of legitimacy he now needs to safeguard his hold on power.
Putin’s increased reliance on repression has generated risks to the stability of his regime. Political science research shows that repression is effective in the sense that it increases autocrats’ longevity in office. But depending too heavily on it, as Putin has done, can raise the prospect that leaders will make destabilizing mistakes. Heavy-handed tactics compel people to mask their private views and avoid sharing anything but what the government wants to hear, which means the autocrat, too, loses access to accurate information. High levels of repression also create a rising reservoir of general dissatisfaction, so that even a small outburst of discontent can quickly spiral into trouble for the regime. To mitigate these risks and reinforce his hold on power, Putin has used his control over the information environment to convince the Russian people that their country is at war with a West that wants to break it apart.
Putin has also reoriented the Russian economy around his war. Russia’s defense spending is set to reach its highest point since the collapse of the Soviet Union, with $145 billion allocated in the 2025 budget—the equivalent of 6.3 percent of GDP and more than double the $66 billion Russia budgeted for defense in 2021, the year before the invasion. And the true amount of such spending will likely be higher, possibly exceeding eight percent of GDP, once other, unofficial forms of defense-related expenditures are accounted for. (When also adjusting for considerable differences in purchasing power parity between Russia and the United States, Russia’s actual defense spending is much higher than $145 billion, exceeding $200 billion.) Russian factories producing military equipment have added shifts to increase production; workers have moved from civilian to military sectors, where the wages are higher; and payouts for military service have skyrocketed. The war has become a wealth transfer mechanism channeling money to Russia’s poor regions, and many economic elites have moved into the defense sector to cash in on lucrative opportunities. Elites have, by now, adjusted to the system’s current configuration, enabling them not just to survive but to profit from it.
Having gone through the pain of shifting the economy to a wartime footing and feeling the pressure of new vested interests, Putin is unlikely to undo these changes quickly. After the fighting in Ukraine ends, he will probably instead look to justify the continuation of the wartime economy. Such was the inclination of Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, who, after the Allied victory in World War II, soon began to speak of Moscow’s new five-year plans as necessary preparation for the next inevitable war.
Russian foreign policy is also transforming in ways that will be difficult to undo. The invasion of Ukraine has made it impossible for Russia to build ties with the West,........