Americans head to the polls this November to elect all 435 members of the U.S. House, 35 senators and 39 governors — a midterm cycle that could shift political control in Washington. Prediction market data from Kalshi, as of Sept. 28, shows Democrats remain competitive in both chambers. But while control of Congress will dominate national headlines, some of the most consequential tax changes of 2026 will be decided at the state level.

Voters across more than a dozen states face at least 27 statewide tax measures, according to MultiState, including proposals to tax high‑net‑worth households in California and Washington, slash property taxes in Florida and other states and lock low income tax rates into state constitutions in places like North Carolina and Colorado. Together, these decisions could reshape how Americans are taxed in 2027 and beyond.

Will Voters Really Tax The Wealthy?

“Tax the rich” will be on the ballot for roughly 14% of Americans this November. This movement is headlined in the 2026 midterm elections by California’s Proposition 40, which would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of California residents who have more than $1 billion in wealth. This proposal has sparked debate and strong actions since it was first filed, including design choices that critics say have prompted some billionaires to consider leaving the state and whether non-billionaires may ultimately bear part of the cost.

The tax applies to any qualifying California resident on Jan. 1, 2026. This means billionaires who have since moved out of California (presumably to avoid this 5% wealth tax) would still be required to pay the tax in 2027 if Proposition 40 is passed. Ninety percent of the sponsors’ estimated $100 billion in incremental tax revenues collected from the wealth tax is slated to go to health care, with the remaining going to funding K-12 educational needs, food assistance and other administrative costs.

High-profile figures have also publicly debated the merits of this proposal. For instance, Mark Cuban and Rep. Ro Khanna clashed over Prop 40 on X in August, with Cuban arguing that the tax would push startup founders out of California. Other opponents have used advanced econometric techniques to provide evidence that the........

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