How CEOs Can Minimize Supply Chain Risk In 2026 |
Happy 2026 to all! The year is just a few days old, and we’ve already seen huge news that promises to move markets, change business forecasts and alter the way the United States does business with the world. Policy that leads to seismic change seems to be a constant now, and it’s impacting how business leaders are looking at the year ahead.
For context, in its annual outlook survey, global CEO advisory firm Teneo found that CEOs and investors are confident about growth prospects for the coming year, but it’s somewhat muted. Overall, 73% of CEOs and 82% of investors expect an improved global economy—but that confidence isn’t universal. Large-cap CEO confidence is down 20 points year-over-year, the survey found, reflecting the kinds of uncertainty and policy changes that defined much of 2025—and are starting to rule 2026.
Still, CEOs are looking ahead to the new year with optimism. About three-quarters of CEOs and investors expect to see more M&A activity this year. Over 80% say policy changes to advance technology and streamline regulations will help their businesses in the new year. And 68% plan to increase AI spending this year, with the vast majority of CEOs believing that AI will help navigate or mitigate whatever disruption the year brings.
Time will tell if that optimism bears out, but 2026 will certainly be full of challenges—both familiar and new—for businesses to meet. A continual challenge over the last several years has been in the area of supply chains: Keeping businesses supplied with what they need amid public health, geopolitical and tariff-related issues—while also dealing with non-policy-related obstacles like weather and environmental events. I spoke with Corey Rhodes, CEO of supply chain intelligence firm Everstream Analytics, about how business leaders can meet these issues in 2026. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter.
President Donald Trump started 2026 with bold moves, with the U.S. military striking targets in Venezuela and removing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on Saturday morning. Maduro and Flores were brought to New York to face U.S. charges related to drug and weapons conspiracies. Trump was making good on his months of threats against the South American nation—and quickly said that the U.S. would “have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars and fix the badly broken infrastructure” in Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest oil reserves.
While the regime change movement in Venezuela is ostensibly about illegal drugs, the spotlight is on what it could do for U.S. oil companies. Over the weekend, Vice President JD Vance said the “stolen oil” in Venezuela must be returned to the U.S. Forbes senior contributor Robert Rapier writes about the history of U.S. involvement in Venezuela’s oil industry. ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips used to pump millions of barrels of the country’s heavy oil reserves daily, exporting it to U.S. refineries for processing. But in 2007, then-Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez nationalized the country’s oil industry, sidelining foreign operators and seizing their assets. The only U.S. firm still operating in Venezuela is Chevron; ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips exited and pursued international arbitration over what they were forced to give up. The companies were awarded billions of dollars in damages by arbitrators.
Without the involvement and expertise of foreign companies, Venezuela’s oil industry fell into decline. And Forbes’ Christopher Helman writes that U.S. oil companies will be key to bringing it back. Several companies had deep expertise and investments in the nation, and Helman details........