Business risks are ever present, even in the best of times. But today, it seems the risks are everywhere. Every business ranging from startups to well-established companies to global empires is adapting to quickly changing economic conditions, geopolitical relationships, tariffs and taxes, supply chain issues and government regulations. And all of this was before the war with Iran, which is entering its third week.

Each year, the Casualty Actuarial Society and Society of Actuaries surveys C-suite executives on the emerging risks that will plague them in the coming year. This year’s survey was conducted in January, before the war began, but the breakdown of risks may have come out very similarly if it were done today. A quarter said their top risk was extreme financial volatility, while 19% said it is geopolitical shifts. Among chief risk officers and chief actuaries, that margin grew: 34% said their greatest risk was the economy and 26% said it was geopolitics.

But it will take longer than three weeks to adapt to both long- and short-term changes the war brings to global business, particularly for capital-intensive industries like manufacturing. As manufacturing adapts—both through new facilities in the U.S. and technology to improve productivity—leadership needs to prepare. I talked to Tom Strohl, president of business transformation firm Oliver Wight Americas, about how to do it. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter.

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As the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee begins its meeting this week, the overwhelming consensus among economists—more than 99% on CME FedWatch—is that baseline interest rates will stay the same. Economic data released over the last week backs that prediction up. In January, annual inflation was 3.1%—an increase from December’s 3%, and above the 2.9% estimated by analysts, according to core consumption expenditures data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This indicator, well above the Fed’s 2% target for inflation, isn’t the only bleak statistic from the federal government last week. The Department of Commerce revised its economic growth estimate for Q4 of 2025, cutting growth in half—down to 0.7% from 1.4%.

All of these statistics showing a slowing economy are from before the war with Iran began, so it’s likely that indicators will keep trending in the wrong direction. The U.S. crude oil benchmark—the West Texas Intermediate—topped $100 per barrel early Monday, as Iran continues to block the vital shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz. Average gas prices in the U.S. neared $3.70 a gallon on Monday morning, and analysts say they are on track to hit $4 a gallon later this week—even though the U.S. is planning to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Analysts say gas prices will continue to climb, and likely won’t drop back to pre-war levels even under the best circumstances until late this year because of seasonal factors.

High gas prices impact the entire economy—from consumers who had already been feeling financially strained to businesses paying more for energy and imports, writes Forbes senior contributor Erik Sherman.

That impact is already settling in. In March, consumer sentiment fell, hitting 55.5 in the latest survey from the University of Michigan. While this is above the all-time low score of 51.0 last November, anything below 100 signifies economic pessimism. Survey Director Joanne Hsu said that consumer sentiment had been slowly building since November, but the Iran war—and most notably the dramatic and fast uptick in gas prices—“completely erased those initial gains.” And, Forbes senior contributor Pamela Danziger writes, consumers were already feeling strained from persistent inflation and tariffs—so they are now looking only at price when shopping for anything.

Politics that have nothing to do with these numbers and trendlines of the economy could be playing out in the Fed’s meeting this week. A federal judge essentially nullified the Trump Administration’s criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week. In the order denying subpoenas seeking documents and information about ongoing renovations to the Federal Reserve’s headquarters in D.C., Judge James Boasberg wrote the case was not about figuring out whether the renovations had deviated from plans, but punishment for Powell.

“A mountain of evidence suggests that the dominant purpose is to harass Powell to pressure him to lower rates,” Boasberg’s ruling states.

While Trump has been trying to remake the Federal Reserve Board of Governors to be more sympathetic to his desire for more interest rate cuts, the criminal investigation of Powell became the last straw for many senators—who in turn are the very body who will need to confirm Powell’s successor. From the time it was announced, several Republicans called out the investigation as attempted coercion of the Federal Reserve.

In January, Trump nominated former Fed member Kevin Warsh to become its new chair. He was thought to have an easy path to Senate confirmation—as long as the criminal investigation against Powell was dropped. However, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro immediately appealed Boasberg’s ruling, which the New York Times writes makes Warsh’s confirmation chances difficult once again. Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is blocking Warsh’s nomination—as well as any other Trump nominees to the Federal Reserve—at the committee level until the Powell investigation is canceled, Reuters reported.

More big layoffs are coming, and AI is being blamed. SaaS enterprise system powerhouse Atlassian announced last week that it is cutting about 1,600 employees—about 10% of its global workforce—to better adapt to the current market. According to a memo from CEO Mike Cannon-Brookes, the company will be restructuring to self-fund further investment in AI and enterprise sales. It isn’t AI replacing the people who work there, the memo states—Cannon-Brookes has said AI and people create the best outcomes—but, he wrote, AI is reshaping the mix of skills needed and the number of roles required.

Forbes’ Jonathan Burgos points out that Atlassian has had a difficult year on the stock market. After AI company Anthropic launched its Claude Cowork tool and associated plugins earlier this year—all designed to bring AI to enterprise IT functions commonly used by many companies—many investors in major SaaS companies sold shares. Atlassian’s stock is down more than 51% this year, even though its most recent earnings report showed a 23% year-over-year increase in revenue.

Late last week, Reuters reported that Meta is also planning sweeping layoffs—potentially impacting 20% of the company—because of AI. Forbes senior contributor Peter Cohan writes that Meta’s stock has plummeted. Since last summer, it’s down more than 20% since its August peak. While Meta’s main business has been social networks, it’s also poured money and resources into AI—and earlier this month decided to delay the release of its upcoming AI model because it is not performing as well as other top offerings. Meta has not confirmed any plans for layoffs on the record, calling it “speculative reporting.”

How To Prepare Manufacturing Leadership For Tomorrow

Building leadership for the next generation of manufacturing—both at brand new facilities and ones that are being upgraded with new technology to meet future needs—is a challenge that all companies in the space can be taking on now. Tom Strohl, president of business transformation firm Oliver Wight Americas, talked to me about how to prepare. This conversation has been edited for length, clarity and continuity.

What skills do tomorrow’s manufacturing leaders need to have?

Strohl: I think about readiness. Readiness has two components: One is skillset and the other is motivation. If you’re deficient in either one, you really need to do something about improving your skillset, your motivation or both.

All the unfavorable emotions play a big role in that motivation piece: fear, anger, trust. If you’re looking at tech and you’re fearful of it—you don’t understand it, maybe you’re angry about it because it’s changing everything around you and you’re not ready—these things can play a factor in a leader’s ability to adapt.

And right now, time is crucial because it’s moving so fast. If you’re on that plane that says, ‘I don’t trust it, I don’t know about it, I’m scared of it, it makes me angry,’ you’re not going to respond fast enough. It’s going to be a problem.

How can a company work to instill that mindset, both in the current leadership at a facility and for future leadership?

Our company is engaged in this whole change management issue right now. The first thing we need to do is educate ourselves. You have to know what good looks like. You have to know what direction you want to go with it and where it’s going.

Once you have some education, then you can start figuring out: How do I use that technology to enable what I’m trying to accomplish in my business? Because that is what technology will do. It doesn’t solve anything. It doesn’t really fix anything. It enables, but it still requires leadership. It still requires people to say: This is what I want done. How can technology enable that for me?

Which would you say is the bigger challenge: getting that mindset in place, or getting the right infrastructure and technology in place?

The way that we look at technology is: You need to have people that are trained, educated and developed to create and understand processes that you want to use to drive your business. And then you can decide what technology you need to enable all that. There’s a lot of companies that will start with technology and try to work it backwards. My view is: That’s backwards and it will slow you down generally.

If you educate and develop your team to be able to define what the business needs really are, you can look for exactly the right technology that meets that need, or design technology or an AI agent that fits the need specifically.

If you go the other way, start with technology, you’ve either bought or designed a piece of technology. You’ve created an AI agent to do something, but you’re not quite sure what you want it to do. So now, you have to figure it out and then teach the AI tool. Or if you’ve bought a piece of technology, you’re kind of beholden to that software programming. It may not necessarily be designed to do what you end up finding out you need it to do, and then you’ve got to go back and restart. Maybe you have to go buy something different.

All the time, your people are sitting there. They don’t know what they’re trying to do. They don't know what is expected of them. Now, you’ve got to go back to them and try to get them to figure out, ‘How do I operate this tool to do what we need it to do?’

That’s a long way around to getting it right. It’s a much shorter path to start from the other direction.

Insurance broker and risk advisor Marsh appointed Nick Studer as its president and chief executive officer of Marsh Risk, effective April 1. Studer previously worked as the president and chief executive officer of Marsh subsidiary the Oliver Wyman Group, and he succeeds Martin South, who is transitioning into a new role.

Professional services firm Aon promoted Anne Corona to its CEO of North America role, effective March 31. Corona currently works as the company’s CEO of enterprise clients and global chief commercial officer, and she succeeds Lori Goltermann, who is transitioning to the role of vice chair.

Specialty and ethnic food retailer Heritage Grocers Group selected David Hinojosa as its new chief executive officer. Hinojosa most recently worked as chief operating officer at Vallarta Supermarkets, and began his more than 30-year retail career at 17, as a part-time night stocker at Walmart.

Everyone is using AI in business nowadays, looking for the functions and applications that save both time and money. But are you actually doing that? Here are five ChatGPT prompts to help you determine if AI really is helping.

Leaders know they need to make the best decisions—and that the wrong ones can sometimes have sizable and lasting consequences. But taking too much time to deliberate can actually be more costly than making a bad choice. Here’s why thinking more quickly pays off, and five ways to speed up your process.

Whether your company is fighting on a literal battlefield or a commercial one, business viability in the modern age comes down to value creation, according to a recent interview with which of the following CEOs?

A. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk

B. Palantir Technologies CEO Alex Karp

C. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman

D. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino

See if you got the answer right here.

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