Hurricane Milton

Hurricane Milton is a Category 4 hurricane and looks quite healthy on satellite imagery at the time of writing Tuesday morning. As a meteorologist, I am very concerned. Our best forecast models continue to bring the storm into the Tampa Bay region, which has not taken a direct hit from a storm of this magnitude in over 100 years.

With landfall expected Wednesday evening, here are four things to know about Hurricane Milton right now.

Expected track as of the morning of October 8th, 2024.

Hurricane Milton is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane located just north of the Yucatan peninsula. Hurricane warnings are currently posted for that part of Mexico as well as much of the Florida Peninsula. The storm is starting to turn towards the northeast and is on a direct track into the Tampa Bay region. That’s why parts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina are under hurricane or tropical storm watches. Milton is expected to remain at hurricane strength as it crosses the peninsula and heads into the Atlantic Ocean.

Stunningly, Hurricane Milton had peak winds of 180 mph on Monday. It exhibited rapid intensification. What does that mean? It was a powerful storm at the upper end of the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. It went from a Tropical Storm to Category 5 hurricane in less than two days. In other words, its wind speeds increased by roughly 130 mph over that period of time. Geez!

A hurricane hunter aircraft released a dropsonde into the storm that measured a pressure of 897 mb. That pressure places Milton in some pretty rare air in terms of strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin. According to University of Albany doctoral student Minghao Zhou, five hurricanes had pressures below 900 mb. Wilma (2005), Gilbert (1988), Labor Day Storm of 1935, Rita (2005), and Allen (1980). Lower pressure means a stronger storm.

As stunning as these values were, Hurricane Milton was not projected to remain at that level of intensity. Dry air and wind shear may limit the storm from the extreme top end scenarios from........

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