What do the budget numbers say? |
The budget has been drawn up quite cogently, covering all possible aspects in the fiscal space, giving incentives where required, while following the path of prudence. Two things stand out. The first relates to the data points, which raise six interesting issues that will have implications in the medium term. The second is the foresight shown in terms of focusing on emerging sectors, which makes the Budget contemporary in the context of the emerging reality.
First, when the budgetary numbers are examined closely, several issues arise in the context of fiscal consolidation. True, there is a determination to bring the ratio of debt to GDP to 50 percent by 2030. For this, the fiscal deficit ratio has to be lowered, probably to 3 percent eventually, to reach this target. For FY27, the Budget manages things well, with the fiscal deficit ratio being at 4.3 percent, which, however, is only marginally lower than the 4.4 percent of FY26. It must be pointed out that this number would be subject to change when the new GDP series is released, which can have a different number as the denominator when the FY26 figure is revealed.
The number which stands out is the gross borrowing programme of ₹17.2 lakh crore, which is very high, though the net borrowing programme has been pegged at ₹11.7 lakh crore, which is on par with last year.........