William Watson: Security guarantees have an unhappy history |
Do Ukraine's friends understand that any guarantees they promise may actually be redeemed if Putin renews his aggression?
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As part of a possible armistice with Russia in the “special military operation” that as of this week has lasted longer than Russia’s involvement in World War II, Ukraine apparently is being offered “security guarantees” against the possibility that at some future date — i.e., as soon as it’s ready again — Russia would renew hostilities.
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Though Russia opposes such guarantees, so far peace talks are taking place mainly between Ukraine and its supporters (“allies” is probably too strong) and are of the form “what could we get you to agree to assuming some day Vladimir Putin becomes interested in talks?” Russia being opposed therefore isn’t yet crucial.
There apparently is a possibility Canada could participate in providing such guarantees, though it is not clear what we could send to serve as a tripwire to a larger retaliation if hostilities were renewed: a couple of half-completed icebreakers? A purchase order for some F-35s? We do have tanks and armoured vehicles but the first four years of this war have shown how little use such things are this century.
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