Lawrence Solomon: Greens gave Iran the Hormuz stranglehold
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Lawrence Solomon: Greens gave Iran the Hormuz stranglehold
If Europeans hadn't outlawed the fracking that has made the U.S. a net energy exporter, they would need much less Middle East oil and gas
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Iran did not create the strategic leverage it currently derives from the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. That accomplishment rests with the environmental lobby, which over decades has spent tens of billions of dollars opposing fossil fuel development in the name of preventing climate catastrophe.
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Fossil fuels aren’t found only in the Middle East or a handful of other regions. They also exist in abundance across Western Europe and most other parts of the world. According to a 2013 Energy Information Administration study that focused on emerging shale technologies in 42 countries, “globally, 32 per cent of the total estimated natural gas resources are in shale formations alone while 10 per cent of estimated oil resources are in shale or tight formations.” The problem is that Europeans and others deliberately chose not to use these energy resources.
The U.S. shale revolution demonstrates that Europe’s dependency on oil and gas imports, and thus on the Strait of Hormuz, was completely avoidable. Until the shale revolution took hold in the 2010s, America was the world’s largest importer of oil and natural gas. But once regulatory and environmental barriers eased and hydraulic fracturing scaled commercially, the U.S. became the world’s top producer of both oil and natural gas and the leading exporter of liquefied natural gas. Net imports of petroleum products plunged. Domestic energy prices fell. And Washington gained diplomatic leverage instead of ceding it.
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That same kind of energy abundance was available to Western Europe. But Europe said no.
The United Kingdom placed onshore fracking for shale gas under a moratorium in 2019, ignoring a major 2013 EIA assessment showing that the Bowland Shale Formation alone holds roughly 26 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas and 0.7 billion barrels of shale oil. Last year it followed up the moratorium with an outright ban. For good measure, the newly-elected Labour government also banned new licensing for oil and gas fields in the North Sea, pursuing net-zero targets despite the U.K.’s long history as a major producer. Aggressive development would have made Britain a major producer and possibly restored its past status as a major energy exporter.
France took an even more extreme position in 2011 when it became the first country to ban fracking nationwide. In 2017, it also banned all new oil and gas exploration and required an end to fossil fuel production by 2040. Yet France sits atop the largest assessed shale resources in Western Europe — 137 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas, enough for decades of consumption, and 4.7 billion barrels of shale oil. Aggressive development could have transformed France from a major net energy importer into a major net exporter.
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Germany’s experience mirrors France’s. Its 2016 ban on fracking, part of the broader “Energiewende” policy that also phased out coal and nuclear power, left its 17 trillion cubic feet of shale gas and 0.7 billion barrels of shale oil undeveloped. This self-inflicted dependence on imported oil and gas left Germany brutally exposed after Russia’s energy became unavailable to it following that country’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Netherlands, also once a conventional gas exporter via the Groningen field, imposed a shale-gas moratorium in 2013 that has become effectively permanent. Its West Netherlands Basin holds an estimated 26 trillion cubic feet of shale gas and 2.9 billion barrels of shale oil — resources left in the ground as the country shifted to net-importer status for gas.
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Across Western Europe, the EIA’s 2013 assessment identified 256 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable shale gas and 9.1 billion barrels of shale oil in major basins. Combined with maximized conventional North Sea production, German lignite, nuclear energy and offshore resources, unleashed development could have made Europe fully energy self-sufficient. Instead, these vast resources remain locked underground. Canada and Australia, both major energy producers, have also curtailed their enormous potential under pressure from environmental lobbying.
Had the West as a whole pursued American-style energy development, global markets would have been flooded with supply. The resulting glut would have destroyed the outsized strategic value of the Strait of Hormuz and every other energy chokepoint.
The environmental lobby did not intend to empower Iran or invite energy crises and wars. But through its multibillion-dollar advocacy for net-zero policies and fossil fuel bans, it created exactly the scarcity and dependence that its adversaries have been exploiting so ruinously to the expense of the western world.
Lawrence Solomon, founding columnist at Financial Post and managing director of Energy Probe Research Foundation, is the author of seven books, including The Deniers.
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