Bjorn Lomborg: We need to copy China’s energy playbook and go nuclear

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Devouring energy made China rich, which is now enabling it to go clean and dependable by rapidly expanding its reliance on nuclear

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Many in the West are in awe of China’s apparent dominance in green energy, inspiring headlines like “China is becoming a green superpower.” And yes, the solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles and batteries China is flooding world markets with do seem to be proof of an inevitable green transition. But these green marvels are mainly built with fossil fuels, particularly coal. China’s real energy achievements — its energy-fuelled prosperity and its leadership on nuclear power — are overlooked.

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After China’s property bust, capital poured into solar panels, creating overproduction and overcapacity. Chinese solar production capacity is now more than twice the global market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates every segment of China’s solar supply chain suffered losses throughout 2024, with margins often at minus 20 per cent or even lower. Over 40 companies have gone bankrupt, and the industry has slashed its workforce by a third. Ironically, Chinese solar panel production depends on coal: every Chinese silicon smelter requires its own coal-fired power station.

China has fired a third of its solar workforce — and more need to goThat's because there's a global solar production glut: the world has way too many factories making solar panels (more than 2x needed)https://t.co/gYZ3Slqu6Zhttps://t.co/cgyjTTevFShttps://t.co/glqDh0HmTq pic.twitter.com/SJKEc2Smei— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) August 4, 2025

Investment is now pouring into electric cars. Auto-making has become an economic pillar for local governments once reliant on land sales and taxes on real estate. The auto industry and related services now account for a tenth of China’s GDP. Here, too, however, overcapacity is staggering: one forecast sees only 15 of the current 129 EV brands still being viable in 2030.

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Chinese consumers buy nearly two-thirds of all EVs sold globally — pushed by a government that wants to reduce reliance on imported oil and lured by rock-bottom prices from surplus production. But EV battery packs are manufactured using coal energy and charged on a coal-dominated grid. A recent estimate shows that over its useful life a Chinese EV emits 85-90 per cent of the CO₂ of a gasoline car. And that may be optimistic, as many buyers of new EVs would have bought either no car at all or a less polluting hybrid. Chinese EVs are also driven much less than conventional cars, spreading the carbon debt from their construction over fewer miles and raising per-mile emissions.

EVs don’t help with air pollution, either. One study shows they reduce nitrogen oxides by about one per cent but increase far deadlier sulfur dioxide and particulate matter by 10 and 20 per cent, respectively.

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In the race to power the world, China is far ahead of everyone on clean-energy technology. Its lead is growing fast. https://t.co/hHYSaCH9go— The New York Times (@nytimes) July 1, 2025

In the race to power the world, China is far ahead of everyone on clean-energy technology. Its lead is growing fast. https://t.co/hHYSaCH9go

So when people say “we should copy China,” they’re half right - but they’re looking at the wrong thing.We shouldn’t copy its eco-propaganda for Western idealists.We should copy its energy realism and respect for thermodynamics. pic.twitter.com/o9ZnwyiBLi— Maurice Cousins (@MDC12345678) October 9, 2025

The vision of China as a renewable superpower is mostly green propaganda. China did add unprecedented amounts of solar and wind capacity in 2025, but it also planned an unprecedented number of new coal power plants. China remains the world’s top coal consumer, with fossil fuels supplying over 87 per cent of its primary energy. Renewables’ share was actually 40 per cent in 1971 when China was poor but plummeted to 7.5 per cent in 2011. Since then it has risen slowly to just over 10 per cent. On this trajectory, a full transition to renewables will take four centuries. In 2023, the latest IEA data show, China added five times more coal than solar and wind energy.

Green hype vs realityNew York Times: Green China pulling awayReality: In 1971 China was 40% renewable (biomass, hydro, solar, wind etc) because poor (wood, dung)As average Chinese got 35x richer over the period, fossil fuels maxed at 92% in 2011, now 87% in 2023China is… https://t.co/2qH8crlZLF pic.twitter.com/czpwdYo2rS— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) July 7, 2025

Although western climate campaigners’ celebration of China as a green giant is clearly misplaced, the country’s recent energy history does teach two important lessons.

First, it has dramatically scaled up its energy use and grown rich as a result. The West — especially Europe — should abandon its self-imposed energy restrictions and follow suit. Consider fracking. Heavily restricted or even banned across Europe, it has helped China boost its shale gas output by roughly 20 per cent per year since 2017, putting it on track to become the world’s third-largest gas producer — and making it more resilient than other economies to price spikes from the Iran war.

Second, China is surging ahead in nuclear technologies, which really could decarbonize the planet at scale. In the West, traditional nuclear power has become prohibitively expensive, with U.S. construction costs tripling since the mid-1980s. The U.S. has built only three new plants this century, at enormous cost and with 11-year timelines. Contrast this with China, where reactors are built in just five years and costs have halved since 2000 — and now match mid-1970s U.S. prices. China has gone from three reactors in 2000 to 60 today, with 37 more under construction (nearly half the global total), 42 planned and 146 proposed.

Fourth-generation reactors — often small and modular — are designed for efficiency, affordability, minimal long-lived radioactive waste and inherent safety. One report estimates that in this technology China leads the U.S. by 10-15 years. The world’s first such reactor began operating in China over two years ago. China is deploying all of the six types of fourth-generation reactor. As for nuclear fusion, China dominates patents and has allocated more resources to it than all other countries.

China’s strategy isn’t renewables redux; it’s a race for abundant energy. The West risks awakening to a world powered, not by its own ingenuity, but by Beijing’s reactors. Green China is a sham. But the West needs to copy China’s real energy playbook, by ramping up energy use and investing in nuclear R&D.

Bjorn Lomborg, president of the Copenhagen Consensus, is a visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and author of “False Alarm” and “Best Things First.”

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Bjorn Lomborg: We need to copy China’s energy playbook and go nuclear

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