How much are you worth? |
How much are you worth?
An imperfect algorithm to estimate your employability and earning potential.
[Photos: Getty Images]
BY Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic
Human beings are complicated creatures, but we are also relentless forecasters. We spend much of our lives trying to infer the future from the past. Investors scrutinize market data to anticipate tomorrow’s returns. Meteorologists analyze yesterday’s weather to predict next week’s storms. And most of us, at some point, wonder where our own lives are headed.
There is a reason for this impulse. A future that is completely predetermined would make life dull. But a future that is entirely random would make life impossible. After all, randomness means that past events provide no information whatsoever about what will happen next. If that were truly the case, planning would be pointless. Every decision would be a coin toss. Fortunately, most aspects of life sit somewhere between these extremes. They are neither perfectly predictable nor completely chaotic. Patterns exist. Trends repeat. Signals can be detected, albeit imperfectly.
One of the domains where people most want predictive clarity is their career. Almost everyone, at some point, asks a version of the same question: If I choose this path rather than that one, what will it do to my future success? Should you study engineering or law? Join a startup or a large corporation? Pursue management or technical expertise? Move abroad or stay where you are? Even people facing difficult circumstances usually retain some degree of choice. Because of that, we naturally try to make decisions that maximize our future opportunities.
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Dr. Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic is a professor of organizational psychology at UCL and Columbia University, and the co-founder of DeeperSignals. He has authored 15 books and over 250 scientific articles on the psychology of talent, leadership, AI, and entrepreneurship.
But how predictable is career success, really?
The answer depends first on how we define success.
There are objective indicators, such as income, occupational status, prestige, influence, and demand for one’s expertise. These are imperfect but observable signals. Some jobs, after all, are widely perceived as more prestigious or lucrative than others. It is difficult to argue that hedge-fund managers and neurosurgeons are not, on average, more highly compensated than baristas or retail clerks (though, on the other hand, it is questionable that nurses, teachers, and in many countries doctors earn surprisingly little compared to other, less meaningful professions).
There are also subjective indicators, such as job satisfaction, purpose, or fulfillment. Interestingly, these are often more predictable than the objective ones. Research consistently shows that how satisfied people feel with their work depends heavily on personality traits such as emotional stability, optimism, and intrinsic motivation. Two people with identical careers may evaluate their success very differently.
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