03-10-2026FUTURE OF SUPPLY

The Iran war made oil prices more expensive. Your groceries could be next

Fertilizer that our food system relies on moves through the Strait of Hormuz, where global shipping has been essentially halted.

[Source Image: Adobe Stock]

The United States military action in Iran is making some Americans concerned about what they’ll pay at the pump to fuel their vehicles. But that’s not the only price spike that could come from the conflict.

The war in the Middle East has essentially halted global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman. That disrupts not only the flow of oil, but also the movement of natural gas, fertilizer, aluminum, and more, which could impact the price of other goods—including food.

“Those impacts will be significant and will have cascading global ramifications,” says Michael E. Webber, an energy expert from the University of Texas at Austin, via email.

The conflict could also snare supply chains broadly as trade routes shift. And with fuel prices increasing broadly, your commute isn’t the only transportation affected.

Prices to ship anything may rise, too, leading to higher retail costs. In these ways, surging energy prices often increase inflation.

Oil affects tractors, semi-trucks, and cargo ships

This week, oil prices spiked to more than $100 a barrel. Though they’ve since dropped below that threshold, the uncertainties around the war—including conflicting comments from the Trump administration about how long it will continue—have experts worried about the market.

That barrel price refers to crude oil, from which gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are made. Diesel is often used for tractors on farms, meaning price hikes could affect a farmers’ operating costs.

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