Washington is accumulating costs — in credibility, cohesion, and regional stability — without a clear plan to convert them into strategic gains.

The United States has again slipped into a familiar posture: backing a partner in a fast-moving conflict, confident that American power can manage the fallout and that the costs will remain contained. But the war unfolding across Israel, Gaza, and the broader region is testing those assumptions in ways Washington has not fully confronted.

What began as a campaign to weaken Iran’s military and nuclear capacity is drifting toward the opposite result. Iran and its network of proxies are absorbing strikes, escalating attacks, and rallying domestic and regional support—while the United States bears rising political, diplomatic, and economic costs. The question Washington has not answered is the simplest one: What is this war actually buying?

American power remains immense. But power is not control, and Tehran understands that distinction better than most. Iran........

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