US President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing for a two-day state visit from March 31 to April 2 in 2026, eight years after his last visit to China in 2017. The world has changed significantly since then. Economies had moved from a highly interdependent system towards a new Cold War system of intense rivalry. Supply chains and technologies have become critical front lines of this rivalry, while the way China and the US conduct trade with each other and with the rest of the world has changed, too, all in the name of national security. For a small economy such as Singapore, which is very exposed and very dependent on the stability of the global system, the Trump visit will be a crucial juncture that could set the course for the next decade of geopolitical and economic developments.

Singapore’s approach to foreign policy has long been grounded in a doctrine of pragmatic realism characterised by three principles: namely, that the country must remain independent, avoid being drawn into competitions between major powers and remain critical of their interests. These days, however, the plausibility of this formula is at its weakest in decades. A possible grand bargain between the US and China to provide stability and certainty to the global oil market and to emerging technologies that could also help to prevent any division of the global high-tech manufacturing market into separate US and Chinese blocs. A ceasefire in all but name – that could also be very beneficial for Singapore. A major MNC, which has invested heavily here and still has a global-oriented business model, has already been “priced out” by global events of the last few months in Vietnam. It now wants to follow suit with other of its investments, and “repatriate” some of the capacity it has recently shifted to Vietnam here to take advantage of higher skills, if only it felt that Singapore was no less competitive in terms of cost. If there were a negotiated bargain between the US and China, there would be a strong message sent to the MNCs, those with “China Plus One” strategies for Singapore, that the instability that had caused the investment in Vietnam to happen is on the wane.

Still, no amount of statesmanship can stop the momentum of the underlying economic forces at play. The struggle for market share and costs propelled by inflation will all continue to cloud global economic realities. Multinational companies will continue to push operational assets that carry higher value added to safe havens with more stable and better-connected economies. Indeed, none in Asia can hold a candle to what Singapore represents. A confrontation at the summit will only contribute to an increase in global inflation pressures, the consequences of which will be felt in Singapore in terms of longer-term impacts on the competitiveness of the economy and social discontent.

The way we live in Singapore next year could be very different. With its ambitions in transforming itself into a Smart Nation and becoming a global and innovation-driven hub for advanced manufacturing, the country is also exposed to the intense geopolitics of the global semiconductor industry. The ‘splinternet’, the concept of the Internet breaking up into separate systems, is fast becoming a major strategic dilemma. The Internet as we know it, which prides itself on being a neutral ground, may have to choose between US and Chinese technology. The fragmentation that we saw in 5G and the way in which AI was governed could now play out in cloud infrastructure and global supply chains. Interoperability, which is at the very heart of our existence as a nation and a city-state, is something that we will have to carefully guard against.

While Singapore may have lost some influence as part of the ‘Pax Silica’ (a play on the famous Pax Romana and Pax Americana concepts) that binds Japan, South Korea and other leading semiconductor-producing countries, it still retains significant influence. Its expertise in advanced packaging and precision engineering, for instance, remains in high demand in an era of rising protectionism. Rather than being part of the turmoil unfolding in the wider world, Singapore can function as a peacekeeping proxy in the high-tech supply chain that Washington and Beijing are currently vying for control of. In today’s world of deteriorating trust in a growing number of issues, Singapore is an exception in being highly trustworthy. As such, it also benefits from the current context, which sees countries increasingly scrambling to obtain the few remaining critical resources that can ensure their future competitiveness.

The Trump-Xi dynamic will dominate headlines during the Beijing summit, but the underlying issues behind the current tensions, the clash between America First and China’s “Dual Circulation”, are likely to remain unresolved. Any agreements or pauses in the ongoing trade tensions are unlikely to return the world to the pre-2017 era of free-flowing cross-border goods and services. And while companies and suppliers may choose to rebalance supply chains during this potential pause, nobody seriously believes the old days are coming back. The new reality of strategic competition is here to stay.

For Singapore, the benchmarks for success are clear. The Straits of Malacca must remain safe, and the global financial system stable, open and competitive. These are critical for Singapore’s survival and relevance. Singapore’s history has seen the country navigate and align itself with the prevalent global power dynamics of the time, without ever being overtly dependent on any of them. And we will all be watching closely from afar as the new Cold War power play plays out in the Great Hall of the People.

China has its own domestic issues to deal with, from boosting the economy to convincing the world that it’s a stable place to invest. The G20 summit is the first major test of President Xi’s ability to inspire confidence both at home and abroad. China has to navigate a more critical and cautious world in relation to its strategic intentions and its dominant role in key technology sectors. The summit will be an indicator of how China’s rulers can balance competing pressures from home and abroad.

It’s time for Singapore to revamp its brand of cosmopolitanship. It has to remain a significant and reliable economy for other countries in an era when trust is a diminishing asset, and the unpredictability of global events is increasingly foregrounded. It needs to balance its enduring obligations to the basics of stable politics, the rule of law, first-rate infrastructure, and a globally respected standing as an impartial interlocutor with the requirement of adaptability in a shifting geopolitical landscape that calls for rapid reflexes and effective sensing of the mood and direction of events abroad.

This is an age of chaos and uncertainty, and Singapore’s strength is in its ability to be a safe and stable anchor for the chaotic and turbulent world around us. Increasingly, large companies, investors and governments will look for places that they can reliably do business with, irrespective of whether Washington, Beijing or other major capitals are on good or bad terms with each other. With the world perhaps in a new era of perpetual competition, the stability and relevance of Singapore to the wider world cannot be taken for granted. Singapore’s place in the world must be reasserted, secured and continuously upgraded and improved.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.

                                                       Reference

Huld, A. (2026, January 20). US–China relations in 2026: What to watch. China Briefing. https://www.china-briefing.com/news/us-china-relations-in-2026-what-to-watch/ 

Reuters. (2026, February 24). The US wants stable relations with China but does not trust it, a US official says. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-wants-stable-relations-with-china-does-not-trust-it-us-official-says-2026-02-24

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