Assalamu alaikum, your excellencies. I would like to thank Minister Al Hussaini for UAE’s warm hospitality and welcome our new co-host, Dr. Alturki and wish him all the success in his position.
The Arab region plays an increasingly important role in a rapidly changing world. And this is reflected in the depth and quality of our engagements. For the observable future ministers from the region will steer the direction of the World Bank and IMF — with Minister Al Hussaini as the Chair of the Development Committee and Minister Al-Jadaan as the Chair of the IMFC. Having the Arab world lead both bodies is another milestone in the region’s global leadership.
And the eighth Arab Fiscal Forum — like our Annual Meetings in Marrakech last fall—is a demonstration of how we have nurtured and grown the partnership between the Arab World and the IMF over many years.
It reminds me of a classic Arab proverb: “A tree begins with a seed.”
At a time of economic challenges, geopolitical tension, and war, it is so important that we plant seeds now—of growth and cooperation, of peace and prosperity. What is the soil we plant in?
Let’s look at the current conditions and what we see ahead.
While uncertainties are still high, we can be a bit more confident about the economic outlook, because the global economy has been surprisingly resilient. Growth exceeded expectations in 2023, and global headline inflation is expected to fall in 2024. But we cannot declare victory prematurely.
Medium-term growth prospects remain anemic at around 3 percent, compared to the historical average of about 3.8 percent. They could be boosted by factors like developments in artificial intelligence. But with roughly 40 percent of jobs exposed to AI—both globally and in the Arab world—its effects are uncertain. Countries that lack the infrastructure and skilled workforces to harness this technology could fall further behind.
Turning to immediate prospects for the Middle East and North Africa, we expect GDP growth to reach 2.9 percent this........