During President Joe Biden’s speech at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago on August 19, pro-Palestinian delegates briefly unveiled a banner urging an end to U.S. arms for Israel before they were drowned out by cheers for Biden. Meanwhile, pro-Palestinian protests outside the arena further highlighted the lingering divides between the Democratic establishment and its constituents. Vice President Kamala Harris’s promotion as the party’s nominee has slightly eased tensions, but her reluctance to fully endorse a ceasefire has kept discontent alive.
Arab and Muslim Americans have been central to elevating the Gaza War to the forefront of national politics. Yet despite increased attention to their political influence since October 7, 2023, their ability to sway presidential elections is still uncertain. These communities are largely concentrated in major cities and relatively small in numbers, with limited overlap. Roughly three-quarters of the 3.7 million Arab Americans are Christian, while Arab Muslims form about 15 percent of the 4.5 million Muslims in the country. Illinois has the highest per capita Muslim population in the U.S., yet they make up less than 4 percent of the state. Michigan’s Arab population, per capita the largest in the country, forms just over 2 percent.
Support for Palestine, however, unites the Arab and Muslim populations, alongside progressives. Their fervent and organized opposition to Biden’s stance on the Gaza conflict casts doubt on whether Harris and the Democrats can regain their support before the election, particularly in must-win swing states. Yet while the Palestinian issue has amplified the visibility of these voters, their political activism extends to cities and congressional districts across the country. Friction with Democrats over several issues has created openings for Republicans, so far with mixed results.
The fluidity of Muslim and Arab voters has been apparent for decades. As the American Muslim population grew into a substantial voting bloc in the 1980s, for example, neither political party consistently secured their loyalty. President George W. Bush won the Muslim vote comfortably over Al Gore in the 2000 election, but the War on Terror, Patriot Act, and surveillance and harassment of American Muslim communities after 9/11 drove it to the Democrats.
By the 2020 election, Arab and Muslim American dissatisfaction with Democrats reignited some competition over their votes, though it remained lopsided. While 64 percent of Muslim Americans voted for Biden, 35 percent supported Donald Trump, up from 2016, and largely similar to the Arab American vote. Polling in the aftermath of October 7 revealed declining approval for both men, with Biden hit harder. A Council on American-Islamic Relations poll showed Muslim voters preferred Biden to Trump by 37 percent to 27 percent, while Pew Research found support nearly tied at 36 percent to 35 percent. The Arab American Institute found Trump leading Biden 32 percent to 18 percent among Arab Americans.
Frustrated with their presidential choices,........