The U.S. government has got the Europeans in a spin over Trump’s desire to annex Greenland. His Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt notably said that “utilising the U.S. military is always an option at the commander in chief’s disposal.”

Let’s be clear, Denmark would not be able to resist an American military annexation of Greenland. With 1.3 million active military personnel, it dwarves Denmark with 20,000 active soldiers. The U.S. spends twice as much on defence as all the other NATO members combined.

However, I see little likelihood of the U.S. going to war with Denmark over Greenland. The threat has to be taken seriously, but this appears to be classic Trumpian bluster aimed at securing favourable terms for the U.S. in Greenland.

What do the Americans want?

They want to deny Russia and China access to vast deposits of resources in Greenland;

They want to gain privileged access to U.S. firms to exploit those resources;

They want to have a more explicit security foothold in the Arctic, which is largely dominated by Russia and Canada (though Trump seemingly wasn’t to annex Canada too).

Trump might be able to achieve these goals over the longer term through strategic patience rather than resorting to military force. But he has only three years remaining in office and he would need to reach a deal with Denmark which appears unlikely in the short-term.

Trump is clearly pushing the art of the deal, hoping to force Denmark into backing down and agreeing to some sort of sale of Greenland to the U.S. But any deal to allow U.S. annexation of Greenland would amount to a modern-day version of the Munich agreement to allowed Adolf Hitler to annex the Sudetenlands.

Trump’s calculus, like Adolf Hitler’s, would be that no major European power would be willing to fight to prevent a military aggression against Greenland........

© Eurasia Review