The Horn Of Africa In 2026: Managed Volatility, Contested Sovereignty, And Adaptive Multipolarity – OpEd |
The coming year of 2026 appears to maintain the same off-balance state of the region as in previous years. This could only be described as managed volatility i.e. a complex situation of persistent crises, which are being selectively managed and negotiated, thus maintaining the same status quo without leading to complete breakdown of the region or an outright solution of its problems, as represented by fragmentation of the major states of the region (Ethiopia and Somalia, in the main) and state wars (Ethiopia and Eritrea).
The region’s core problems oscillate over resource disputes and geostrategic geography. Sea access and ports, shared waters, trade corridors and maritime routes and chokepoints will remain central to the region’s volatility. This will be complimented by competition over political power within each state, continuing demographic growth and perhaps energy production, which appears to be on the verge of coming to light in the not-too-distant future. Extreme escalation will be tempered as usual by its seemingly opaque but pragmatic diplomacy.
The security dynamics of the region will follow this logic of managed volatility although proxy networks, insurgent groups (ethnic or otherwise) and externally backed terrorism will not disappear during the current year 2026, while humanitarian interventions and pressures will remain a powerful mechanism that will shape the region. Large-scale........