The ongoing Israeli war on Hezbollah in Lebanon poses a critical question: Will Syria be drawn into this conflict as it escalates? As the violence intensifies, the geographical proximity of Syria to Lebanon makes it almost inevitable that events in the latter will affect the former. Historically, Lebanon and Syria appear to have had intertwined fates, politically, economically and socially, due to their shared border and cultural ties. This raises concerns that the current conflict in Lebanon could spread across the border, especially given the complex alliances and rivalries in the region, which involve not just local actors but also global powers like Iran, the US and Russia.
Conflicts in Syria and Lebanon have often spilled over from one to the other, especially during times of civil strife. The Syrian civil war, for instance, had devastating effects on Lebanon, causing severe economic strain and altering the social fabric.
Over the past decade, Lebanon has absorbed nearly 1.5 million Syrian refugees, placing enormous strain on its infrastructure and public services. Now, as violence erupts in Lebanon, the reverse could happen, with refugees flooding into Syria, further destabilizing this already fragile country. The social, economic and political ramifications of this are vast and Syria is unlikely to escape the fallout if this conflict worsens.
Israel’s war against Hezbollah is already having a significant impact on Syria, though it has not yet drawn the country into direct conflict. One of the first effects is an influx of........