Trump escalates US-Iran conflict over Strait of Hormuz: Renewed strikes and blockade attempts have reopened fighting, with Iran striking Gulf targets in response to US actions and perceived violations of the June MoU. 

Iran maintains control leverage: Tehran views Hormuz as its key strategic asset and has used missile/drone attacks to assert dominance, rejecting US attempts to bypass Iranian oversight via Omani waters. 

Broader risks and domestic pressures: Escalation threatens global energy markets and could accelerate economic downturns (including AI bubble risks), while Trump’s actions are driven by political calculations amid declining polls.

When the U.S. Navy, in co-ordination with Qatar and Oman, tried to slip a convoy of four vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, via Omani waters, on Tuesday night – rather than pass via Iran’s officially approved route – Trump may have imagined (or been told) that with the massive funeral for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei under way, that Iran would not react as the U.S. Navy attempted to force open an American corridor. Trump however, misread the Iranian jibe – Hormuz is its’ ‘atomic weapon’. Iran will not relinquish it.

Trump insists – in clear contradiction to the terms set out in paragraph five of the MoU – that Iran has no right to interfere with any ship trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran nonetheless is acting within the terms of the agreed de-escalation framework, and has warned repeatedly that it would strike any vessel circumventing the Iranian control mechanism.

Iran responded directly to Trump’s challenge to Iranian control of the Strait by striking two vessels with missiles and a third with an armed drone. A forth Qatari-owned tanker, laden with liquefied natural gas, was set ablaze, forcing its crew to abandon the stricken vessel.

These Iranian ripostes provoked Trump to order American air strikes against Iranian targets; to reimpose sanctions on the Islamic Republic’s oil exports; and to revoke the MoU framework he had signed with what he called the “Iranian scum” – thus ending the ceasefire. “We hit them........

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