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Watch Out For These 4 Warning Signs on The Road to Success

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You have to be confident to start a business. Depending on the study, between 75 and 90 percent of startups fail. To be an entrepreneur, you have to believe that your business, that you can beat those odds. If you are confident enough to start a business, then you are smart enough to know you mustn’t be overconfident. Confidence gives you gumption, but overconfidence can make you blind.

Every day you chant “Don’t be overconfident!” with your morning coffee. You grow confident you’ve vaccinated yourself against overconfidence. Then your new business joins the sad 75 to 90 percent of vanished ventures. You wish you’d had even one tiny, trivial doubt.

No entrepreneur sets out to be overconfident, but overconfidence happens. So what causes it? How do we become overconfident, if it’s the last thing we want?

I am sorry to report that there are at least three roads to overconfidence, and none of them has a sign that says “Warning: Entering Overconfidence.” On the contrary: In a cruel twist, the road signs say “Capitalist Nirvana, Straight Ahead.” The deceptive signs were not put there by pranksters, but by well-meaning investors. The investors also suffer from the overconfidence they induce, if it’s any........

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