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Braid: Separatists stick with Premier Smith, for now. What happens when they lose the referendum?

The real battle is inside the UCP

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Alberta’s separatist drive isn’t really a fight for the future of Canada.

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It’s a battle for the United Conservative Party.

The latest polling from Janet Brown, commissioned by the CBC, shows separatist support is stuck at 27 per cent, while 67 per cent will vote against leaving Canada.

The only income group with plurality support for separation — 47 per cent — is people earning more than $150,000 who have trouble paying their bills.

There’s no evidence in this poll that general support for independence is above its usual level, just below 30 per cent.

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Except in one category — UCP voters.

Fifty-seven per cent want separation. Only 34 per cent are against.

“That was evident from the reaction that I got at the UCP annual general meeting, when over 85 per cent of the room stood up and gave a standing ovation for Alberta independence,” says Jeffrey Rath, counsel for the Alberta Prosperity Society and Stay Free Alberta.

Rath had shouted out the question, and in return got a loud voice poll on how many members feel.

That’s where the real battle is — inside the governing party. The referendum on Oct. 19 won’t shake Canada, but it could drive Alberta politics — and policy — into the 2027 general election.

Rath says of Premier Danielle Smith: “She knows that the vast majority of her membership support Alberta independence. She’s effectively a federalist leading a party where a supermajority of her members do not support federalism.”

And yet, they generally love Smith.

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“A lot of people in Alberta think that Danielle is one of the best retail politicians that this province has ever seen.

“If she were to openly declare for independence, I’m sure people in the movement would be thrilled. I think that’s a question for her. Even among our supporters, support for Danielle is very strong.”

But he suggests Smith also holds the separatists hostage.

“Everybody knows that we don’t have a choice, because if (NDP Leader Naheed) Nenshi ever got elected, that would be the end of independence for the life of whatever government he was involved with, right?

“We all support Danielle and we’re very grateful that she amended the Citizens Initiative Act to allow our petition to go forward, in the face of what was a clear misinterpretation of the law by the courts of Alberta.

“We’re happy with where we’re at.”

If the separatists were to win the referendum vote on Oct. 19, most will expect Smith to become a declared separatist leader and press for independence.

That truly would be an event to shake Canada. But poll after poll shows it won’t happen.

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The more realistic question is what the separatists — and Smith — will do after Albertans reject the independence option.

Smith would have to fight hard to keep them aboard the UCP. Her worst nightmare is the rise of a separatist party that would steal enough support from the UCP to elect the New Democrats.

She’d walk that tightrope for a full year after the referendum, until the provincial vote in October 2027.

The premier has options, of course. She could always call an earlier election to head off a new opponent.

I asked Rath if his movement would build a new party, similar to Quebec’s Parti Quebecois, to institutionalize the separatist cause on the provincial scene.

He said: “We have contingency plans on top of contingency plans, but we’re not prepared to release them or comment on them.

“We’re in a very fluid situation. I don’t think it helps anybody to speculate on what might happen. We’re focused on winning the referendum.”

The breakup on the right is just getting started. We haven’t seen anything yet.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald

X and Bluesky: @DonBraid

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