Producers and the province are closely watching how geopolitical issues and supply-demand fundamentals unfold in the coming month

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Oil prices went up Tuesday, while several price projections for the commodity this year are headed in the other direction.

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It underscores the volatile times facing global oil markets, as well as Canadian producers and the Alberta government.

On Tuesday, geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran continued to unnerve global energy markets, propelling West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices higher by US$1.65 a barrel to close at $61.15.

At the same time, questions surrounding Venezuelan heavy oil returning to the U.S. market have led to the price differential between WTI crude and Western Canadian Select (WCS) heavy oil widening in the past week — a change that could have supersized ramifications for the province’s budget next month.

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On Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released its latest short-term outlook, forecasting WTI oil will average $52 a barrel this year, and dip to $50 a barrel in 2027. The agency expects global oil inventories will continue to rise this year — and into ’27 — as production exceeds demand.

A separate report released Tuesday by energy analytics firm Enverus projects Brent crude will average about $55 a barrel in 2026. The U.S. benchmark WTI crude will be closer to $50 a barrel, as oil prices need to “reset”........

© Edmonton Journal