Farmers' leader voices fears over war's impact on fuel, fertiliser and food inflation |
National Farmers' Union (NFU) president Tom Bradshaw was the guest speaker at the Royal Norfolk Agricultural Association's AGM at the Norfolk Showground.
He said the Covid pandemic and war in Ukraine had already proved the UK's vulnerability to supply chain shocks.
Now the "resilience of our food system" is being severely tested again after the war in Iran sent fuel and fertiliser prices soaring and triggered fears over food inflation.
Despite a ceasefire and hopes for peace, he said long-term concerns remain over the continued stand-off in the Strait of Hormuz - a vital trade route for an estimated 20pc of the world's oil and gas shipments, and 35pc of urea exports, making it a critical bottleneck for fertiliser.
National Farmers' Union (NFU) president Tom Bradshaw speaking at the Royal Norfolk Agricultural Association AGM at the Norfolk Showground (Image: Chris Hill)
Mr Bradshaw said the immediate concern following the outbreak of the conflict was over "fair and transparent" pricing in the markets for fertiliser and tax-rebated red diesel. But he added: "As we move forward, the focus is really moving onto the availability of these critical inputs."
"We know we cannot have a stable food supply chain without availability of diesel," he said.
"But only 2-3pc of the domestic supply of diesel is being used as red diesel within agriculture. It is crucial for the food supply chain, but potentially it is very easy to be overlooked as not being a big user of domestic diesel.
"What we are saying to the government is if we get to a time of shortage, you have to make sure that the whole farm-to-fork supply chain is prioritised.
"We are also asking for them to stop the 5p increase in the fuel duty that is supposed to be coming in September."
Mr Bradshaw said securing fertiliser supplies for 2027 is "another absolutely critical issue".
"We believe the fertiliser is more or less here for 2026, but 35pc of the world's urea comes through the Strait of Hormuz," he said.
"What we are seeing with fertiliser is that the Russians, the Chinese, even Turkey, are stockpiling product, because they want to make sure they have access to what they need domestically rather than exporting around the world.
"This is really severe if we end up with shortages globally. I think where our government is struggling at the moment is they are looking at our direct import supply chains from that part of the world, and saying we are not impacted because we don't import from here or there, so there is very little exposure.
"For a domestic shock you could think that's right. But this is a global shock.
"Countries will always look after themselves first rather than deciding they are going to send it to us over here."
Mr Bradshaw said the ongoing uncertainty will affect decisions made in the next three months for autumn cropping.
"We really genuinely see it as the start of the next inflationary cycle," he said. "I think it is incredibly difficult to predict where this ends, before we know when the conflict ends.
"We all hoped initially it would be a blip, but it is much more than a blip."
In a wide-ranging discussion with Norfolk farmers, Mr Bradshaw also addressed topics including EU reset negotiations, gene edited crops, agricultural water supplies and mental health.