Georgia’s Wavering Foreign Policy Amidst Upcoming Elections

The Georgian Dream party came to power following the parliamentary elections in 2012, which was the first power transfer in the history of Georgia. As a coalition party, it concluded the EU-Georgia Association Agreement (2014–2016) and the Visa Liberalization (2017). Initially, it appeared to be a willing democratizer. Though, its recent authoritarian transgressions manifested in the adoption of a controversial law on “Transparency of Foreign Influence” (May 28, 2024). This Law aims to weaken local pro-democracy forces and insulate Georgia from democratic international pressures.

Georgia has always strived for joining the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) since its independence. The rationale behind this Euro-Atlantic Integration was simple and straightforward – to contain Russian political and military aggressions, and to achieve economic growth and political stability through Western integration. The issue of territorial integrity was a leading factor for Georgia to align with NATO, while the EU integration was seen as the promoter of a democratic consolidation. The United States and the European Union collectively supported Georgia’s statehood. Conversely, Russia attempted to undermine Georgia’s statehood several times with its support for the separatist forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia during Georgia’s early independence. These separatist conflicts resulted in the ethnic cleansing of Georgians and their internal displacement. Furthermore, Russia invaded Georgia in August 2008. Georgia’s foreign policy has remained pro-Western since the country’s independence and this was preserved in Article 78 of the Georgian Constitution. No prior government attempted to shift its Western orientation given that such a move was associated with high electoral costs. Yet in a puzzling move, Georgia’s government, led by the Georgian Dream, took a risky decision by aligning with Russia.

The US, EU and NATO were important promoters of the Georgian democracy. Since its independence, Western democratizers collectively supported its state- and democracy-building projects, investing billions of USD dollars, and transferring knowledge on good governance. The Georgian government was willing to receive such democratic assistance. This openness is regarded as an important factor to achieving desired democratic outcomes. Reliable local partners represent internal pillars to avoid unintended consequences of international democratic assistance. Democracy promoters succeed in Georgia and elsewhere when they empower democratic veto holders within the political elites along with civil society and the media – three critical arenas essential for consolidating democracy and establishing........

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