Opinion – New Nexus among Bangladesh, Pakistan and Türkiye: India’s New Headache? |
A healthy bilateral relationship between any two countries is essentially underscored by ‘mutual sensitivity’, a foundational value glaringly absent from the current India-Bangladesh ties. Sheikh Hasina had played an undeniable role in bringing Dhaka closer to Delhi. Since the fall of her government, Muhammad Yunus-led Bangladesh is redrawing the political map, one where Dhaka is growing closer to Islamabad and further from Delhi (Halder, Majumder, and Khokon 2025, 157). Besides allowing Islamists a free rein in the country and acquiescing to their sectarian and anti-India agenda, the Yunus administration has also effected a deep reset in Bangladesh’s foreign policy by forging very close links of especially military and strategic nature, with both Pakistan and Türkiye. The piece will try to address how and why India will be affected by a deepening military tie with Turkiye, what this means for the subcontinent, and how these changes could affect the region.
Very recently, the Nobel laureate and chief advisor to the Bangladeshi government, Professor Muhammad Yunus, allocated a record 55,000 crore taka to build infrastructure for the production of defence equipment in Bangladesh. A landmark defence deal with Türkiye is in its final stages, an agreement that will likely witness Dhaka acquire the SIPER long-range air defense system and potentially co-produce Turkish combat drones. Since 2010, Bangladesh has imported 15 different types of military equipment from Türkiye. This effectively earns Bangladesh the title of the fourth-largest market for Turkish military equipment. Interestingly, the Milli İstihbarat Teskilatı (MIT), which is Türkiye’s spy agency, financed the renovation of Jamaat-i-Islami’s office in Dhaka and organised visits by Jamaat and other Islamists, as well as select leaders of the July uprising, to Turkish Arms manufacturing units (Halder, Majumder, and Khokon 2025, 169). By inviting an influential NATO member with an independent streak, such as Türkiye, into its inner circle, Dhaka is enhancing its leverage with other partners, including China, Denmark, and the U.S. For India, watching from the sidelines, it is a relatively novel strategic headache with immediate security concerns.
On the other hand, during his brief tenure, Mohammad Yunus met Shehbaz Sharif, the Pakistani Prime Minister, twice in September and December 2024 to enhance bilateral ties. Accordingly, plans are in place to resume direct flights between the two countries, and Dhaka has lifted visa restrictions for Pakistani passengers. In response, Islamabad has waived visa fees for Bangladeshis. Two Pakistani cargo ships arrived at Chittagong port in November and December 2024, carrying nearly 1,000 containers of industrial materials, including soda ash, dolomite, and marble blocks, as well........