Estonia: Small State Security and the International Order |
Estonia’s historical experience with Soviet control and malign Russian activities has shaped its national security and regional security outlook. Since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Estonia has been relentless in strengthening its national defence and pursuing an active foreign policy to prevent a similar fate from befalling itself. This provides researchers a useful case study for the analysis of the national and regional security interests of small states as Estonia has stood between a rules-based international order that serves the interests of small states and one where powerful states prey on the weak.
In 2007, Estonia became one of the first states in the world to experience cyber and information threats that disrupted its national security. The removal of the Soviet era “Bronze Soldier” statue in Tallinn prompted cyberattacks that took down the websites of Estonian banks, government agencies, and media outlets, thereby impacting the lives of citizens. Concurrently, disinformation from Russian sources exacerbated the public order situation. Fast forward to the present, Estonia is at the frontlines of Russian hybrid warfare. It experienced a power outage in December 2024 when the Estlink 2 subsea cable connecting Estonia to Finland was cut by a vessel believed to be part of Russia’s shadow fleet. The city of Narva, which operates one of Europe’s crossing points to Russia, has seen surveillance blimps from the adjacent Russian town of Ivangorod infiltrate its airspace, and residents have been subjected to Russian influence activities. The threat situation has worsened following the September 2025 intrusion of Russian MiG-31 fighter jets into Estonian airspace for 12 minutes.
Estonia’s national defence and foreign policy initiatives, which serve as deterrence against what Estonia perceives as an existential threat from Russia, comprise three main areas. Firstly, Estonia has been one of the few member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) that consistently spends about 2% of its GDP on defence since 2013. In March 2025, Estonia decided to raise its defence spending to at least 5% of its GDP beginning from 2026. Defence........