The USA has confirmed 3,000 North Korean soldiers are being deployed in the Russia-Ukraine war and the South Korean intelligence agency suspects 10,000 more to be deployed by December. North Korea’s strategic decision to support Russia in the ongoing Ukraine conflict is rooted in a blend of transactional interests and deeper political calculations. As the war extends into its third year, Russia faces pressing needs for skilled manpower, labor, and military supplies, creating an avenue for closer collaboration with North Korea. This relationship has taken on new dimensions, with North Korea reciprocally seeking economic and technological assistance, while Russia benefits from additional reinforcements to support its military objectives.

The June 2023 mutual defense agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang allows for reciprocal military support in the event of an armed invasion, potentially legitimizing the deployment of North Korean forces to reinforce Russia’s frontlines. In addition, relatively skilled North Korean troops could enable Russia to redistribute its forces to the south, where it is approaching a breakthrough against Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk. This repositioning could shift the balance near Kursk, potentially leading to advances toward Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro. Any Ukrainian response to the North Korean presence may inadvertently bolster Russia’s defenses, as even a limited North Korean deployment would act as a force multiplier for Moscow, further pressuring Ukraine’s strained manpower resources, which have now become a greater challenge than material supply.

North Korea’s role as a supplier of ammunition and equipment to Russia has become increasingly vital to Moscow’s war effort, filling critical gaps in Russia’s military efforts. Beyond material support, North Korea could deploy technical personnel to monitor and repair its equipment, demonstrating multifaceted assistance to Russia’s military campaign. Historically, North Korea has deployed troops in conflicts such as the Vietnam and Yom Kippur Wars, although this would be the first time in decades that it has engaged so directly in an overseas conflict. With an initial deployment of 10,000 soldiers, Pyongyang could provide Russia with valuable manpower to supplement its ongoing operations, though such numbers are unlikely to single-handedly sustain Russia’s military. North Korea’s potential contributions of troops, ammunition, and short-range missiles contrast with the supply difficulties faced by Ukraine’s Western allies, highlighting a stark........

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