Before the Trump–Xi summit in May 2026, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Taiwan would inevitably be a topic of discussion between the two leaders. Although the Trump–Xi summit might temporarily ease U.S.–China tensions, the deeper and longer‑term issue concerning Taiwan, the United States, and China is how to avoid a potential military confrontation over the Taiwan Strait and the trap of systemic collapse. Taiwan must shift from being treated as a passive bargaining chip to acting as an autonomous strategic player capable of positioning itself as a “strategic balancing point” in the Asia‑Pacific.

Inevitability of Taiwan’s Strategic Frontline Position

In the era of U.S.–China rivalry, Taiwan has become the core intersection of strategic competition and the most critical strategic frontline in the world. First, China views unification with Taiwan as the ultimate threshold for achieving national rejuvenation or China Dream. From a geopolitical and military perspective, Taiwan occupies a pivotal position within the First Island Chain. Without control over Taiwan, China remains confined to a limited “near‑seas defense” posture, leaving its maritime lifelines persistently exposed to external disruption. Control of Taiwan would allow China to project military power directly into the Western Pacific. From a technological and economic perspective, Taiwan’s dominant role in the global semiconductor supply chain is crucial for China’s ambitions to achieve technological self‑sufficiency. Therefore, Beijing sees national unification as a key step toward reshaping the geopolitical order and becoming a world‑class power.

Under these circumstances, the United States inevitably regards preventing China from unifying with Taiwan as central to maintaining its global leadership and Indo‑Pacific strategic stability. This is not only about defending Taiwan, but about preserving America’s strategic dominance in the Indo-Pacific region. If the United States were to lose Taiwan, it could trigger a disastrous chain reaction, severely weakening U.S. strategic influence throughout the Indo‑Pacific region. At the same time, the United States must ensure that Taiwan’s advanced technologies remain within the U.S.-led system to maintain global technological supremacy. Thus, preventing unilateral changes to the status quo of the Taiwan Strait has become the centerpiece of America’s Indo‑Pacific strategy for preserving U.S. global leadership.

Regardless of the policy choices Taiwan makes, it remains situated at the forefront of great‑power rivalry. The debate between “aligning with the United States against China” or “aligning with China for coexistence” is fundamentally a misunderstanding, because Taiwan is not a “chess player” in the great‑power competition, but rather a “strategic variable.” Although Taiwan’s internal political divisions reflect differing choices under difficult circumstances, a highly divided Taiwan will only increase uncertainty for its future.

Rising Structural Pressures Behind Beijing’s Military Calculus

Although Beijing and Washington still retain some room for peaceful resolution, the possibility of China using military force to resolve the Taiwan issue is systematically increasing.

First, since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, resolving the Taiwan issue and achieving national unification have remained unwavering political missions for every generation of Chinese leadership. From Mao Zedong’s concept of “liberation by force” to Deng Xiaoping’s proposals of “One Country, Two Systems” and “peaceful reunification,” strategies shifted according to national comprehensive power and international political dynamics, but the position on sovereignty has remained unchanged. Under the administrations of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, Beijing continued to pursue peaceful integration through economic ties despite the challenge posed by the Democratic Progressive Party’s first administration. However, under Xi Jinping, the issue has become deeply tied to the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” Xi has repeatedly emphasized that the Taiwan issue cannot be passed down from generation to generation. As decision‑making becomes increasingly centralized, Beijing’s political urgency regarding Taiwan has grown significantly. In practice, Beijing’s Taiwan policy has evolved from simply preventing independence to actively promoting unification, as demonstrated........

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